Greetings, The United States: The multi-decade lows in the US jobless claims overstate the strength of the labor market. According to Capital Economics, many states have tightened their unemployment compensation requirements after 2008, reducing the number of Americans who qualify for these benefits. The Eurozone: Here are the shadow rates for the largest Eurozone economies. Italy’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: When will the economic cycle peak? Here is a survey of investors and business executives. The Eurozone: Germany’s CapEx orders growth should bottom out as China’s economy rebounds. Equities: Analysts’ forecasts for stock prices and earnings growth have diverged. China: One of the drivers of China’s industrial rebound has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Housing affordability has been deteriorating, especially in western US states. The Eurozone: Despite the weakness in Germany’s factory output, manufacturing employment kept expanding (even in the automotive sector). Equities: Tech margins are nearly 3x the median S&P 500 sector. China: China’s credit impulse is starting to pick up. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This scatterplot shows the nation’s wage growth vs. the unemployment rate. The Eurozone: Here are the destinations of the Eurozone’s exports. Equities: The S&P 500 is back on the trend line. China: Exports are recovering. Global Developments: Central banks have stopped tightening. Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business conditions index moved lower in response to softer business expectations. The Eurozone: This is not a fair comparison because we are looking at bonds in two different currencies. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that the 5-year Greek government bond yield is now lower than the US equivalent. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of monthly price changes in the core goods CPI. The Eurozone: Will the rebound in Asia provide some relief for the ECB? Equities: Retail investors remain cautious, suggesting that there may be more upside for the stock market. China: This chart shows China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: An index based on legal transactions (LegalShield) does not support the recent jump in existing home sales. The Eurozone: The “gilets jaunes” movement persists. Equities: The global corporate earnings newsflow index has stabilized. China: The housing market policy conditions remain tight (in 2017 Beijing tightened requirements for …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Business credit applications have slowed in the first quarter. The Eurozone: The euro’s historical volatility has tumbled this year (60-day vol shown below). Equities: International developed markets look increasingly undervalued vs. the US. China: Lending is on the rise again. Global Developments: The ANZ Global Leading …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The dollar’s strength will continue to put downward pressure on import prices. The Eurozone: Economists are concerned that the latest weakness in business activity will pressure the labor markets. Equities: The S&P 500 total return index (including dividends) is back at record highs. China: Capital inflows are …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The energy sector has been a drag on durable goods orders. The Eurozone: It’s not going to be a good year for Germany’s GDP growth. Equities: Analysts expect the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to recover rapidly over the next few quarters. China: The renminbi’s volatility has …
