Greetings, The United States: The Fed has consistently been too pessimistic about the future trajectory of the unemployment rate. The Eurozone: Are the Eurozone’s inflation expectations sufficiently low for the ECB to consider additional easing actions? Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 performance decomposed into the overnight and intraday price action. Lately, …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: A survey from the NY Fed shows economists downgrading their forecasts for the core PCE inflation. The Eurozone: This chart shows the Eurozone’s consumption vs. the working-age population growth. Equities: US equity fund outflows persist. China: The nation’s savings rate stands out vs. economies with similar per-capita …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Some economists remain concerned about slowing business investment, especially as trade-related risks resurface. The Eurozone: Capital Economics sees the Italian government budget deteriorating sharply next year, boosting bond yields. Equities: Buybacks continue to prop up the stock market. China: Here is the structure of China’s economy. Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: How much of the weakness in the core PCE inflation measure has been due to “transitory” factors? Apparently, not enough to explain the recent decline. The second chart below shows the breakdown. The Eurozone: Germany is more exposed to the US-China trade dispute than other Eurozone economies. Equities: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economic sentiment continues to improve. The second chart below shows the components of the index. The Eurozone: Who is in favor of the euro? Equities: Oil and trade-war issues contributed to the earnings growth slowdown. China: This chart shows China’s export growth. Global Developments: Here is the growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US financial conditions have tightened with the rise in trade tensions with China. The Eurozone: The French government budget target looks very different from last year’s projections. Equities: US equity ETF outflows continue. China: China buys parts (such as semiconductors) from Taiwan and South Korea and sells the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists are puzzled by the diverging gauges of the labor market (see descriptions). The Eurozone: Does Germany’s stronger industrial production point to improved GDP growth? Equities: The Q1 earnings growth expectations have rebounded into positive territory. However, the second-quarter EPS growth consensus has moved into the red (vs. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 8th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Slower tax refunds this year will be a drag on retail sales. The Eurozone: Here is the euro’s 60-day rolling historical volatility. Equities: Investors were caught off guard by the renewed trade tensions. China: Here is the inventory-to-sales ratio in China’s residential market. Rates: This chart …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will slow gains in unit labor costs drag the CPI lower? The Eurozone: Retail sales growth remains stable. Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) adjusted for the 2017 corporate tax cut. China: Lending to the property sector continues to climb. Rates: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The growth in US households’ interest payments has accelerated. The Eurozone: Germany’s economic growth is expected to rebound. Equities: With XIV gone, the total VIX ETF vega is positive. China: Here are China’s Social Insurance Fund revenues and expenditures. Global Developments: Here are some charts from Morgan Stanley on some …
