Greetings, The United States: US commercial contractors reported increasing backlogs, which is a positive sign for construction activity. Eurozone: The new round of TLTRO financing didn’t get many takers. But there is still plenty of time for banks to tap this cheap source of funding. China: Companies continue to complain about regulatory uncertainty when …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The Fed delivered the widely expected rate cut. The FOMC statement acknowledged the strength in consumer spending and softer business investment and exports. Two Committee members preferred to leave rates unchanged, while James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) wanted a 50 bps cut. Here are the changes in the statement from …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: For now, the percentage of industrial sectors that are in contraction remains below recessionary levels. Eurozone: Germany’s manufacturing slump has been an outlier. China: The yuan’s share of the global currency market remains modest. Global Developments: This chart shows the time lag between recession indicators and recessions. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Economists are not optimistic. Eurozone: According to Goldman’s analysts, the new QE program would end up purchasing about 3% of the Italian current debt stock, 4% of the Spanish one, and 5% of the Portuguese one. China: Home sales are expected to moderately recover as monetary policy easing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 17th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Working capital at US farms has been shrinking in recent years. Eurozone: This map illustrates the ECB governors’ opposition to QE. China: Airfreight activity points to persistent weakness in manufacturing. Global Developments: Foreign direct investment has stalled in recent years. Food for Thought: Values considered important (by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers are becoming concerned about the availability of credit. Eurozone: Is the French manufacturing sector outperformance over? China: Goldman’s employment growth tracker showed modest improvement recently. Global Developments: The probability of a quarter with negative GDP growth is much higher these days than a couple of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The gap between weekly working hours in cyclical and non-cyclical industries has widened since the trade war escalation. Eurozone: Can the EU budget rules be amended to allow for more aggressive fiscal easing? According to Goldman Sachs, there is room for a more pragmatic interpretation of the existing regulations that …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Higher prices on durable goods (driven in part by tariffs) are weighing on buying conditions. Eurozone: The ECB has been successful in lowering corporate borrowing costs. China: Producer prices on consumer durables are declining, which is putting pressure on corporate profits. Global Developments: Newsflow indicators look recessionary. Has the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the cumulative cost of tariffs for US importers. Eurozone: Finland’s GDP growth continues to decelerate. Nordea is forecasting growth of 1% in 2020 and 0.5% for 2021. China: Is there more downside for the yuan (upside for the US dollar) as US tariffs ramp up? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The trends in prime-age vs. total labor force participation continue to diverge. Eurozone: Economists expect the ECB to lower its inflation forecasts. Here is an estimate from Pictet Wealth Management. China: China eased its monetary policy by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and freeing up additional bank …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2019”
