Greetings, The United States: Cyber Monday online sales hit a new record, rising almost 20% from a year ago. Europe: Below is the European outbound M&A activity with US targets. China: Is China on track to follow Japan’s deleveraging cycle? If so, expect currency weakness, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Emerging Markets: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI report was surprisingly bad, with key sub-indices coming in below market expectations (PMI below 50 means contraction). –Backlog of orders: -There are no signs of price pressures. The Eurozone: Depositors appear to be less risk-averse as cash moves out of Germany. Europe: Have European …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2019”
Greetings, China: Corporate bond defaults have become the new normal. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s November report on trade showed no indication of a meaningful rebound in exports. However, the manufacturing PMI index shows signs of stabilization. United States: Morgan Stanley’s CapEx expectations index keeps deteriorating. Emerging Markets: Latin American currencies have underperformed …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: According to Bloomberg, the market still expects another rate cut next year (chart below). Some economists see more than one (second chart). Asia-Pacific: Japan’s tax hike and a super-typhoon have resulted in the biggest monthly drop in retail sales in recent history. Emerging Markets: Which EM countries are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2019”
Greetings, As a reminder, the Daily Shot and the Daily Shot Brief will not be published on Thursday. To our readers in the United States: Happy Thanksgiving! The United States: Growth in small business employment has been slowing. The Eurozone: Negative rates have been a drag on European bank shares. The ECB hopes …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Economists remain concerned about slowing business investment. Europe: M&A has picked up momentum. China: This chart shows Chinese state enterprises’ (black) and private firms’ (orange) ratio of cash to short-term debt. Equities: March S&P 500 put options outstanding keep climbing. (Put options are the right, but not …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 26th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index is recovering from the August slump. Gallup’s economic confidence index also shows improvement. The Eurozone: The Markit PMI report showed potential signs of stabilization in the Eurozone’s factory sector. However, service-sector growth continues to slow. China: According to Gavekal, Chinese cities have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 25th, 2019”
Greetings, The United Kingdom: Spending is expected to increase even if the Tories win. As a result, Goldman expects a stronger fiscal tailwind in the UK than the euro area. Europe: Will the US open another front in its trade war? Asia-Pacific: Japanese firms have been increasingly profitable. China: Excavator sales …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The map below shows the changes in year-to-date exports to China relative to 2018. Europe: Here, we have home price appreciation vs. mortgage lending growth by country. Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong’s stock market is under pressure again. Despite the uncertainty, mainland China investors have been piling into Hong Kong’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 21th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Despite the rebound in construction activity, surveys suggest that households remain cautious on the housing market. The Eurozone: Negotiated wages are rising at the fastest pace in a decade. Economists expect this trend to raise inflation in the months ahead. China: The US Senate action on Hong Kong …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2019”
