Greetings, The United States: Government spending has been supporting GDP growth in recent years. Government debt now exceeds household and non-financial corporate liabilities as a percent of GDP. The Eurozone: Recently, a weaker pace of consumption growth, possibly linked to rising external uncertainty, has lifted Spain’s savings ratio. China: China’s corporate default …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 18th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Economists question the US’ ability to ramp up exports to China to the levels that are in the “interim” deal. China (supposedly) agreed to buy $200 billion of US goods over the next two years above what it imported in 2017 (see story). This seems implausible. China: According to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2019”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that the Daily Shot Brief will not be published next week. The United States: Economic momentum is cooling as we enter 2020. United Kingdom: Friday’s British pound implied volatility decline was the largest since the EU Referendum. Eurozone: Oxford Economics expects Eurozone loan demand to cool as …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 16th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Once again, there was some confusion about the initial jobless claims data, which showed a spike. A good portion of this increase was due to the late Thanksgiving holiday, which distorted seasonal adjustments. Below we have the unadjusted data. United Kingdom: Early election results show a decisive victory for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 13th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: 13 of the 17 FOMC members expect rates to remain unchanged in 2020. The median “dot plot” has moved lower for both the 2020 and 2021 forecasts in each of the last five meetings. United Kingdom: It’s election day. Here are the latest predictions. The spread has tightened (as …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 12th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the NFIB small business sentiment report, which showed growing optimism in November. China: Currency traders have been bidding up yuan options ahead of the December 15th US tariffs deadline. Commodities: Gold tends to be inversely correlated with US real rates. Equites: Most of the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: With mortgage rates remaining relatively low, more Americans think that now is a good time to buy a house. Also, household assets as a percentage of disposable income are at record highs, boosted in part by low interest rates. The Eurozone: According to a BIS study, the European repo market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan surprised to the upside. Strong labor markets continue to boosts households’ confidence. Will improved sentiment boost consumer spending? The United Kingdom: The pound has been strengthening against the euro. The market expects the Conservatives to gain a sufficient majority in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: It’s been a tough year for farmers and their insurers. Total flood and excess moisture-related crop insurance payouts now top $5.3 billion as a result of significant flooding this year. The United Kingdom: Growth in household’s cash balances (and cash-equivalents) has been rising. Will a faster pace of consumption …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ADP private payrolls report was well below market expectations. The ADP data also showed that small businesses hiring has stalled. United Kingdom: The pound continues to rally as polls show Conservatives maintaining their lead. With a decisive majority in Parliament, the Prime Minister will finalize the current separation …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2019”
