Greetings, United States: Is the US facing stagflation? Not quite. But “slowflation” is a possibility. Eurozone: The recent rise in Eurozone inflation was largely due to the rebound in energy prices. Asia-Pacific: Covid cases in Australia are surging. Energy: Brent crude is trading near $85/bbl. US gasoline futures are approaching $2.50/gal …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Department of Energy estimates that heating costs for households will be 30% higher this winter. Eurozone: Industrial production dipped in August. Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira continues to sink as Erdogan crushes the central bank Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin continues to outperform. Equities: Global earnings downgrades are about …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: A record share of businesses are boosting wages and plan to keep doing so in the months ahead. The cost of labor is becoming more of a problem. Canada: The market is now certain that the BoC will hike rates on or before April. China: The blowout in bond …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 13th, 2021”
Greetings, China: Thermal coal prices hit a new high today amid falling inventories and strong demand for electricity. Asia-Pacific: Australia dominates the global iron ore supply. Slowing demand from China does not help. Japan: Producer prices increased more than expected last month. With consumer inflation remaining depressed, the PPI spike could put …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: While the debt limit crisis has been averted in the short term, the US Treasury is massively underfunded. United Kingdom: Gilt yields are surging (2 charts). The probability of three BoE rate hikes by next June is approaching 80%. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s spot volume increased over the past few days, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The bulk of the recent job openings have been in small and medium-sized businesses. Canada: Short-term bond yields are surging as more rate hikes get priced in. Emerging Markets: Here is a summary of India’s energy crisis. Cryptocurrency: How different are crypto investors from the broader population? …
Greetings, United States: The debt ceiling “can” has been kicked down the road (into December). Yields on shorter-term T-bills declined, while December bills sold off. Stocks rebounded. United Kingdom: The market expects two BoE rate hikes by next May, … … as inflation expectations spike (driven by an unprecedented surge in energy prices). …
Greetings, Energy: European energy prices have gone vertical. These unprecedented market moves will scar European and global economies by squeezing corporate margins and ultimately cutting into households’ disposable incomes and sentiment. Rates: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed’s RRP (reverse repo) program usage to peak in size when the debt ceiling is resolved (when …
Greetings, United States: Factory orders continued to climb in August. Eurozone: Will euro-area PMI catch up to the US ISM, … … or will China derail Eurozone’s manufacturing expansion? Emerging Markets: India’s coal inventories have collapsed. Energy: Brent climbed above $81/bbl after bullish news from OPEC+. Credit: A large …
Greetings, United States: The Treasury market continues to show investors’ unease with the debt ceiling situation (potential risk of default). The X-Date is expected to hit later this month. Here is the T-bill yield curve. Some are calling for the US Treasury to issue a trillion-dollar coin and deposit it at the Fed, which …
