Greetings, The United States: Below is a summary of the regional Fed survey changes in May (GSAI = Goldman Sachs Activity Indicator). The ISM’s national manufacturing index will show a bounce this month (reported June 1st). The Eurozone: The banking system’s persistent exposure to government debt (linking financial and sovereign risks) worries investors. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 30th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The aging population continues to be a drag on labor force participation. The Eurozone: There is plenty of silly talk about “Itexit” on social media. Not only would Italy’s €2 trillion+ debt be redenominated (effectively default) in such an event (devastating the global banking system), but the rest of the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 29th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Inflation is expected to rise modestly going forward. Here are a couple of forecasts. The Eurozone: What will be the impact of higher interest rates on the Eurozone’s largest economies? Energy: Money managers have been boosting their bets on US gasoline futures. Will we see a substantial pullback …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Why has it been so hard for the CBO to forecast the US budget deficit? The Eurozone: The divergence between the Eurozone and the US manufacturing PMI doesn’t bode well for the euro. Energy: This chart compares the decline in output for legacy wells with the production growth in new …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists are still waiting to see further improvements in capital goods orders. The Eurozone: This chart compares labor productivity for Italy, Spain, and Germany. Energy: Here are some scenarios for Iran’s oil exports going forward. Equity Markets: Investment banking revenues in equities have improved in the first …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The chart below shows the Goldman Sachs Wage Tracker and the Wage Survey Leading Indicator. All signs point to higher pay for Americans in the months to come. The Eurozone: This chart provides the consumer confidence trends in the Eurozone. Energy: Crude oil markets are expected to be in …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Analysts are not convinced that the US-China trade war has been averted. Most believe that “the can has been kicked down the road,” and the trade deficit with China will only continue to worsen over the next few years. Here is the forecast from Capital Economics. Also, even before the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US economic sentiment continues to point to higher GDP growth as the soft-hard economic data divergence persists. This chart shows the share of US imports by country. Japan’s share decline started after the Plaza Accord. The Eurozone: The overall macro risk indicators for the Eurozone are still near pre-crisis levels …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: It’s worth noting that rising regional survey price indices (such as the Philly Fed’s data above), don’t necessarily translate into higher consumer inflation. Also, firmer earnings growth in the 2005-07 period did not result in higher core inflation (PCE). Equity Markets: This chart shows sector weights by market …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: CapEx at the largest US companies has picked up this quarter. However, given the sectors involved, the business investment isn’t fully reflected in capital goods orders (which have been lackluster lately). Equity Markets: How do stocks typically perform after the midterm elections? Emerging Markets: Here is BMI’s …
