Greetings, Canada: These charts from Oxford Economics show the growth and composition of households’ excess savings. China: Variant Perception’s China leading indicator has been held up by external factors, even as domestic liquidity data has slowed materially. Emerging Markets: Investment in India’s tech sector hit a new high last quarter, driven by …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Housing-related online search activity has slowed. Canada: Canada’s central bank upgraded its inflation forecast and tapered QE. The market wasn’t impressed. Some were expecting a more hawkish outcome. Bond yields edged lower. Europe: According to TS Lombard, Italy’s recovery plan is designed to mitigate the legacy of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The CPI report surprised to the upside – again. Both the headline and the core inflation measures easily topped forecasts. Emerging Markets: South Africa’s violent protests are putting some pressure on the rand. Equities: Global ex-US earnings typically outperform when world trade is strong. Rates: Expectations for …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Consumer and business survey data suggest that the unemployment rate should be below 4%. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s business confidence took a hit last month. China: Beijing’s tech crackdown did some damage to public shares’ market cap. Equities: Margin expansion has been strong. Credit: Leveraged loan lender protections …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Private investment is back to its pre-COVID trend. But the recovery has been uneven, with industrial equipment lagging. United Kingdom: The May GDP estimate surprised to the downside. China: The PBoC cut the reserve requirement rate. Equities: Peak economic momentum does not necessarily mean a peak …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: The US Treasury has been issuing less debt as it taps its cash holdings. The Fed has been mopping up all the new issuance, tightening the supply and sending yields lower. Credit: The pandemic caused companies to tap their revolving facilities (as revenues dried up), resulting in more funded exposure …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 8th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The FOMC minutes contained few surprises and were perhaps a bit less hawkish than markets expected. There doesn’t seem to be much urgency to get moving on QE tapering. Some members expressed concerns about MBS purchases contributing to rapid home price gains, but there wasn’t consensus on prioritizing these securities. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 7th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Given the urgent demand for labor in many areas, more workers should be coming off unemployment. China: Beijing’s aggressive stance on DiDi may sap demand for China’s equity listings abroad. Recently-listed US shares of Chinese companies took a hit. Commodities: US grains tumbled on Tuesday, with rains expected …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2021
Greetings, Energy: The OPEC+ production increase is off the table for now as the impasse continues. Oil prices jumped. Equities: Higher inflation expectations tend to be good for stock performance. Alternatives: PE acquisitions are surging this year. Given frothy valuations, the latest vintages are likely to underperform. Credit: As …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 5th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased Canada: Factory activity remained robust last month, but growth is off the highs. Asia-Pacific: Speculative accounts continue to increase their bets against the yen (partially due to more carry trades). China: Tier-1 bank capital ratios have been falling for two consecutive years. …
