Greetings, The United States: Which states will feel the brunt of trade retaliations against US tariffs? China: Here is the breakdown of the PBoC’s balance sheet. The increase over the past couple of years has been due to liquidity facilities for banks. Global Developments: Generating strong economic growth without credit expansion is …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has been pulled lower by housing and durable goods reports. Will the trend continue? For now, things are looking up for the second quarter GDP growth. Here is the median economic forecast from Bloomberg. China: Investment activity remains robust. The Eurozone: Italian …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The magnitude of GDP growth fluctuations in the US is the lowest in decades. It’s one of the reasons for depressed volatility across asset classes including bonds and stocks. China: The renminbi is drifting lower against the dollar. The Eurozone: Multinationals based in the euro area are lagging …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The Social Security program had a cash deficit each year since 2009. The deficit was masked by interest income – until now. China: Fixed asset investment growth has been slowing. Credit: Most states have regulatory environments that are supportive of credit. Equity Markets: A strong dollar will be …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: So far, there isn’t much evidence for a sustained wage acceleration in the United States. China: China can counter the US even without tariffs. Here is how the retaliation played out after the nation’s disputes with Japan and South Korea. Rates: US buyers of Treasuries no longer have foreigners or …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The June Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) points to robust economic activity in the US. We should see this trend reflected in the regional Fed surveys and the national PMI reports later this month. China: The June SMI manufacturing index reflects moderating economic activity. Rates: Foreigners’ ownership of Treasuries …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Shipping activity in the US remains well above the levels we saw in previous years, pointing to robust economic growth. China: Here is a breakdown of China’s May industrial production. Too much Bitcoin mining going on? Rates: This chart shows the holders of Treasuries (across maturities). Equity …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 15th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of US household retirement assets over time. China: Are China’s retail sales much worse than the official figures (see chart)? Rates: The next two charts show the composition of the US fixed income market over time. Equity Markets: Tech shares are outperforming again. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: the Committee shifted its rate projections for 2018 and 2019 higher, signaling that another two hikes this year are likely. Here is the “dot plot” over time. China: Bloomberg’s monetary conditions index shows tightening (lower = tighter). Rates: This chart shows the size of some of the largest …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: An updated economic expansion forecast from John Burns: Asia: The central bank policy rate differential between Asia and the US is narrowing. Rates: Higher bond yields typically boost the Treasury market’s implied volatility. But it’s not the case this time around. Are bond investors too complacent? Equity …
