The Daily Shot Brief – October 4th, 2018



The United States: Despite the manufacturing sector’s relatively small contribution to the (service-focused) US economy, factory earnings make up a significant portion of the total nonfinancial operating profits.

Source: TS Lombard


Global Developments: How long do economic expansions last? The analysis below is based on 77 advanced-economy recessions.

Source: Oxford Economics


China: Despite concerns about a slowdown, portfolio inflows into China remain robust.

Source: IIF


The Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q3 GDP tracker.

Source: Goldman Sachs


Equities: Merrill Lynch’s private clients’ data still shows near-record low cash holdings.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research


Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research


Credit: The average investment-grade (IG) spread has not contracted as fast as what we see in high-yield (above). One of the reasons is the rising proportion of BBB debt in the IG index. If individual bond spreads stayed the same, the IG index spread would still climb (second chart below) because of the worsening overall “quality.”

Source: SPDR Americas Research; Read full article


Emerging Markets: This scatterplot shows EM private-sector debt vs. government debt (as % of the GDP).

Source: IIF


Food for Thought: The square footage of Millennials’ homes:

Source: Meyers Research




Edited by Joseph Cohen

To receive the Daily Shot Premium, you need to be a subscriber to The Wall Street Journal. The Daily Shot readers qualify for a special membership offer of $1 for 2 months and can join simply by clicking here.

If you are already a WSJ member, you can sign up for The Daily Shot at our Email Center by clicking here.

The Daily Shot Premium is also available online at

If you have any issues at all, please contact a Customer Service representative by calling 1-800-JOURNAL (1-800-568-7625) or sending an email to

Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

We would also like to thank the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the incredible job they have done providing data and graphics to the public. Here is the credit and legal notice related to all FRED charts: FRED® Graphs ©Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All rights reserved. All FRED® Graphs appear courtesy of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Contact the Daily Shot Editor:

Leave a Reply