The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2018



The United States: This scatterplot shows US average hourly wages vs. the unemployment gap.

Source: IIF

As wage growth improves, so should the core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure).

Source: IIF

Here is Morgan Stanley’s core PCE forecast for next year.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Rates: Most of the increase in Treasury yields over the past 30 days has been due to rising term premium as opposed to risk neutral rates.

Source: The Daily Shot


China: The rate differential between China and the US has been closing, which has been putting downward pressure on the yuan.

Source: Danske Bank


The Eurozone: Will faster wage growth boost inflation across the Eurozone?

Source: Nordea Markets


Equities: Valuations have improved meaningfully this week. Here is the forward-looking P/E ratio (green).

Source: @TheTerminal


Global Developments: Below is Oxford Economics’ estimates for the output gap in advanced economies.

Source: Oxford Economics


Emerging Markets: This chart shows the minimum wage by country.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Food for Thought: Who supplies parts for Boeing 787 Dreamliner?

Source: Lazard Asset Management; Read full article




Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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