The Daily Shot Brief – October 3rd, 2019



The United States: Trade policy uncertainty has reached new highs.

Source: Oxford Economics


United Kingdom:  The UK stock market took the biggest one-day hit in years. While the decline was part of the global selloff, some investors were also unnerved by the possibility of an administrative border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain (Boris Johnson’s proposal).

Source: The Daily Shot


Hong Kong: The economy is in a recession. Retail sales are down 23% from a year ago.

Source: The Daily Shot


Emerging Markets: The rotation into emerging market bonds and out of emerging market equities continues.

Source: HSBC, Insabelnet


Energy: Here is the world electricity generation forecast by fuel type.

Source: EIA


Rates: The 3-month Treasury bill yield (blue) is now above yields offered by other developed economies (min/max yield range shaded in red). According to Arbor Data Science, the US 3-month yield tends to peak 1-3 years before the rest of the world, often leading to periods of economic weakness and/or recession.

Source: Arbor Research & Trading


Food for Thought: President Trump’s approval rating, by poll type:

Source: The New York Times; Read full article

Edited by Daniel Moskovits

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