The United States: There is still a great deal of speculation about who will be Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair. John Taylor’s odds have risen significantly in the betting markets.
This recent interview with John Taylor (just takes a few minutes) suggests that he will advocate for a higher natural rate. And that would result in a steeper/longer tightening cycle. Taylor’s nomination could, therefore, send some jitters through the markets.
The Eurozone: Euro area bankers expect a pickup in loan demand.
Emerging Markets: South Africa is turning into a “banana republic,” as the government’s debt forecasts unexpectedly shot higher.
Equity Markets: ETF inflows have been one of the reasons for the persistent market rally.
Credit: High-yield spreads have diverged from a corporate bank lending index shown below (loan demand minus tightening lending standards).
Bitcoin: We’ve had a few cryptocurrency hedge funds launching this year.
United Kingdom: The number of hedge fund startups in the UK has collapsed. Established asset management firms are loving this because they will be facing less competition in fundraising.
Food for Thought: The racial/ethnic makeup of MLB players over time.
Edited by Joseph N Cohen
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