Greetings,
United Kingdom: Realizing that the earlier proposal will disincentivize employers from holding on to part-time workers, the government amended its jobs support scheme.
The new incentive structure is much more attractive for employers and will result in fewer job losses (but much higher government spending). The schedule below from Pantheon Macroeconomics provides an example of the impact on labor costs.
China: Bankruptcy filings are up.
Commodities: Oriented strand board composite prices in the US are at the highest levels in at least a decade, driven by the housing market and home improvement boom. Will higher mortgage rates halt/reverse the rally?
Energy: The prospect of crude oil from Libya hitting the market in the coming months coincides with an uncertain demand outlook, which may be negative for oil prices.
Rates: The market is no longer pricing in negative fed funds rates.
Food For Thought: Credit and debit card spending:
Edited by Devon Lall
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