The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2020



United Kingdom: Realizing that the earlier proposal will disincentivize employers from holding on to part-time workers, the government amended its jobs support scheme.

Source: @financialtimes Read full article


The new incentive structure is much more attractive for employers and will result in fewer job losses (but much higher government spending). The schedule below from Pantheon Macroeconomics provides an example of the impact on labor costs.

Source: Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macroeconomics


China: Bankruptcy filings are up.

Source: Goldman Sachs


Commodities: Oriented strand board composite prices in the US are at the highest levels in at least a decade, driven by the housing market and home improvement boom. Will higher mortgage rates halt/reverse the rally?

Source: Home Depot, h/t @Marcy_Nicholson
Source: @jeffsparshott, @WSJ


Energy: The prospect of crude oil from Libya hitting the market in the coming months coincides with an uncertain demand outlook, which may be negative for oil prices.

Source: @PlattsOil Read full article


Rates: The market is no longer pricing in negative fed funds rates.

Source: Daily Shot


Food For Thought: Credit and debit card spending:

Source: @jeffsparshott, @WSJ

Edited by Devon Lall

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