The United States: As a result of tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and soft economic data, markets are now pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will not hike rates this year (and may even lower them). Note that the FOMC is forecasting two rate increases. The Fed’s rate trajectory will likely depend on the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations.
China: Industrial profits are trending lower.
The Eurozone: Italy’s Five Star party is slumping in the polls.
Credit: Refinancing activity slowed in 2018 as rates/spreads climbed.
Emerging Markets: Below is the private debt service ratio for select economies.
Global Developments: The selloff in industrial metals doesn’t bode well for the world GDP.
Food for Thought: How do entrepreneurs prioritize their time?
Edited by Joseph Cohen
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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.
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