The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2019



The United States: US farmers’ sentiment improved substantially in January amid hopes for a quick resolution in the trade war with China.

Source: Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer


China: Will we see an official rate cut from the PBoC?

Source: Barclays Research


The Eurozone: The first-quarter euro-area GDP isn’t looking too good.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics


Equities: After months of consecutive losses, long/short equity hedge funds turned a profit in January.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Credit: High-yield is now much less attractive relative to equities. This chart shows the spread between the HY index yield and the S&P 500 earnings yield.

Source: @lisaabramowicz1


Rates: This chart shows the percentage of states with the unemployment rate below NAIRU. It suggests that the Fed is already close to the terminal (longer-run) rate.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Food for Thought: The betting markets’ view on who will control the Senate after the 2020 election:

Source: @PredictIt



Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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