The United States: US farmers’ sentiment improved substantially in January amid hopes for a quick resolution in the trade war with China.
China: Will we see an official rate cut from the PBoC?
The Eurozone: The first-quarter euro-area GDP isn’t looking too good.
Equities: After months of consecutive losses, long/short equity hedge funds turned a profit in January.
Credit: High-yield is now much less attractive relative to equities. This chart shows the spread between the HY index yield and the S&P 500 earnings yield.
Rates: This chart shows the percentage of states with the unemployment rate below NAIRU. It suggests that the Fed is already close to the terminal (longer-run) rate.
Food for Thought: The betting markets’ view on who will control the Senate after the 2020 election:
Edited by Joseph Cohen
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