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The United States: The state-level Sahm rule is rising again, with over 30% of states reaching the recession signal threshold. This acceleration contrasts with the broader labor market narrative, where unemployment remains low.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin dipped below $85k amid increasing fund outflows.
Rates: Since 2023, Treasury yields have become significantly more sensitive to core CPI surprises, with both 2-year and 10-year yields reacting sharply to inflation data. This suggests that markets now expect a more forceful Fed response to inflation fluctuations than in previous years, reinforcing the importance of upcoming CPI releases for rate expectations.
Credit: Spreads remain tight, given the level of uncertainty.
Canada: TSX long-term breadth has weakened despite short-term advancements.
Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s GDP growth accelerated last year, with the Q4 increase exceeding expectations. However, uncertainty remains for 2025.
Food for Thought: US monthly measles cases:
Edited by William Villacis
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