Greetings, United States: The share of mortgages in forbearance keeps climbing. Will it peak this month? Managing the economy with counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy has helped reduce the GDP volatility, according to BCA Research. Energy: Traders have been rolling out of the June NYMEX crude contract into July much earlier than …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2020
Greetings, Emerging Markets: Mexican remittances unexpectedly spiked in March, hitting a record high. Workers from Mexico living in the US tapped their dollar savings to take advantage of the weak peso during the crisis. China: Corporate earnings have deteriorated sharply in the first quarter. Japan: The Bank of Japan is lagging …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2020
Greetings, United States: US factory activity all but ground to a halt in April. While the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI remained above the 2008 lows, the detail of the report showed utter devastation. The ISM production index showed that manufacturing output in its worst shape in the post-WW-II era. Here is the orders-to-inventories ratio. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 1st, 2020
Greetings, United States: Credit card spending is now down 25% from the same time last year. The US savings rate increased by the highest percentage in 39 years (see story) China: China’s restaurant recovery has lost momentum. Also, Macau gaming revenues are down 97% on a year-over-year basis. Equities: Companies …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 30th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The first-quarter GDP contracted by 4.8% (annualized), the biggest decline since 2008. This contraction in the GDP was just a taste for what’s to come in Q2. Here is a forecast from Oxford Economics. Eurozone: Business confidence plummeted in April, with services sentiment hitting a record low. Here is the …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 29th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The biggest post-WW-II drop in consumer spending will drive the contraction in the GDP. The decline in the second quarter is expected to be much worse (the consensus is a 26% contraction). Below is Goldman’s monthly current activity indicator (CAI). The Fed’s balance sheet, as a percentage of the …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 28th, 2020
Greetings, Energy: Crude oil is under pressure again as stockpiles approach physical storage capacity globally. June WTI futures are nearing $11/bbl. Will inventories exceed maximum available storage capacity? Commodities: Processing plant closures continue to wreak havoc on US meat markets. Meat processing margins have spiked. Equities: Hedge funds are positioned …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 27th, 2020
`Greetings, United States: Half of Americans see their financial situation getting worse. The percentage of Americans who think it is a good time to buy a house hit a new low. Eurozone: Here are the IMF’s unemployment rate projections. Commodities: US wholesale meat prices keep climbing as processing plants shut down. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 24th, 2020
`Greetings, United States: Another four million Americans filed for unemployment last week. While the weekly applications are expected to slow, millions more will be applying for unemployment benefits in the weeks ahead. Here is a forecast from Pantheon Macroeconomics. This map shows what portion of the workforce has filed for unemployment since March 15th. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 23rd, 2020
`Greetings, United States: Will the April unemployment rate hit 15%? The Bloomberg consensus for the second quarter is 12.8%. Eurozone: The ECB’s portion of the Eurozone government debt will keep rising. Energy: The implied demand for US refined products seems to have stabilized. Credit: How much will the high-yield default rate …
