Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. Equities: Fund managers are still overweight in healthcare and cash/bonds. Credit: The Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility helped tighten short-term funding spreads. Energy: Here are some scenarios for global oil demand through the end of next …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. United States: Economists continue to downgrade their GDP growth forecasts. The latest consensus estimate suggests that during this quarter, the US economy will shrink by nearly a third. Europe: European equities’ underperformance vs. the US continues to …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Weekly initial unemployment claims remain in the millions. 24% of Americans who were employed in February applied for unemployment benefits since March 20th. Note that many did not qualify. Equities: US stock market outperformance vs. the rest of the world continues to widen (see reasons in #4 here). Credit: In …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications to purchase a home continue to rebound. The market has been remarkably resilient as buyers take advantage of low mortgage rates. Will mortgage rates move even lower? China: Foreign direct investment in the US tumbled from the 2016 peak. Cross-border VC transactions slowed as well. Energy: Liquid fuel …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 13th, 2020
Greetings, Europe: The spike in credit flows was driven by companies tapping their credit lines. China: Investors are concerned about the deluge of off-balance-sheet bonds from local governments (2 charts). And corporate bond issuance spiked as well. Energy: The Saudis are cutting oil output again and “encouraging” other producers to do …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Americans have been delaying bill payments. And mortgage forbearance rates keep rising, albeit at a slower pace. Europe: Below this year’s UK household spending vs. 2019. China: Credit expansion is running well ahead of historical trends. Also, here is the broad money supply (M2). Energy: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the April payrolls report. Job losses have been unprecedented in recent history. The job market carnage was even worse than the headline figures indicate. The data on labor flows show a record number of Americans leaving the labor force. These workers are not reported as unemployed. Adjusting for …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 8th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index continues to worsen (contradicting some other measures which show stabilization). The buying climate deterioration has been more severe than personal finances, as consumers retreat and the savings rate climbs. United Kingdom: The Bank of England is forecasting the worst yearly decline in the GDP in centuries. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2020
Greetings, United States: According to the ADP private payrolls report, nearly a decade worth of job gains have been wiped out in a month. Here is the distribution by sector. Eurozone: Here are some GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021: Equities: Based on corporate earnings calls, financing concerns in April were worse …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The share of mortgages in forbearance keeps climbing. Will it peak this month? Managing the economy with counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy has helped reduce the GDP volatility, according to BCA Research. Energy: Traders have been rolling out of the June NYMEX crude contract into July much earlier than …
