Greetings, United States: This chart shows the percentage of shuttered small and medium-sized businesses across industries most impacted by the crisis. The recovery has entered the slow (“pandemic”) phase, according to Moody’s Analytics. Emerging Markets: Core inflation has decelerated across most of EM Asia, except India. Equities: Retail traders are chasing ‘hot’ stocks. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment report surprised to the downside as confidence took a turn for the worse in July. The downshift in sentiment was substantial. Europe: The euro continues to advance. Equities: Here is the S&P 500 seasonality chart, which shows the market performance 60 days out. The …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 17th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The declines in initial jobless claims have stalled. The labor market recovery may take years. United Kingdom: Unemployment claims declined in June. Remarkably, the unemployment rate is holding below 4%. Europe: Here are the Q2 GDP estimates by country. Equities: Here is the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index showed an impressive improvement in factory activity. It’s worth noting that New York and New Jersey were late to reopen, and some of the rebound is due to pent-up demand. The expectations index is off the highs but remains elevated. United Kingdom: This year’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The headline CPI increased, driven by the recovery in fuel costs and soaring food prices. Market-based inflation expectations have nearly recovered from the pandemic-led decline. China: The nation’s trade surplus is near multi-year highs on a year-to-date basis. Equities: Here is a summary of S&P 500 dividend cuts, suspensions, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The 2020 federal deficit is rapidly approaching $3 trillion after the biggest monthly increase on record in June (see story). Europe: Here is the IMF’s latest GDP projection for the EU. China: Foreign investors are increasingly buying Chinese government debt for safety and yield. Equities: Analysts’ earnings estimates …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: Tech mega-caps increasingly dominate the US benchmark. Rates: Speculative investors are now net long the 10yr note futures. Energy: Last month’s Dallas Fed Energy survey showed that nearly 75% of energy and production firms are expected to restore their curtailed output over the next three months. Stockpiles of gasoline and …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 10th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Another 1.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. While the headline initial claims figure has been gradually moderating, the situation is more troubling when the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program is taken into account. Eurozone: The number of European “zombie” companies is on the rise. China: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2020
Greetings, Global Developments: Despite the recent bounce, inflation swap markets still expect the CPI to remain subdued for years to come. United States: Credit card borrowing declined sharply this year. Households cut back spending while the government offered generous support. In the first quarter, Northeast states saw a sharper GDP contraction than the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 8th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Spending by low-income consumers is back to pre-crisis levels. Eurozone: Will the recent spike in liquidity boost European shares? The European Commission is now estimating the 2020 GDP contraction at 8.7%. China: Here is Goldman’s forecast for China’s stock market. Credit: Many properties backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) …
