Greetings, United States: Unemployment applications remain above 2 million per week. Here is the total number of Americans receiving jobless benefits (about 20% of the labor force). Eurozone: The ECB’s asset purchases have been slowing. China: The stock market rally has faded. China’s currency rebound has stalled as well. Rates: Inflation expectations …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2020
Greetings, United States: The Household Pulse Survey (from the Census Bureau) suggests that the labor market rebound peaked in mid-June and has been reversing since. Eurozone: Euro-area bond funds have been experiencing capital outflows since 2014. Energy: The rebound in US gasoline demand is fading. Equities: The tech mega-cap outperformance has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 22nd, 2020
Greetings, Equities: Half the stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the index by over 10%. Only 22% of the members are outperforming by more than 10%. Such divergence is highly unusual. Alternatives: SPACs have been popular in recent years, with demand ratcheting up in 2020. Here are the annualized returns for alternative investments …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 21st, 2020
Greetings, United States: This chart shows the percentage of shuttered small and medium-sized businesses across industries most impacted by the crisis. The recovery has entered the slow (“pandemic”) phase, according to Moody’s Analytics. Emerging Markets: Core inflation has decelerated across most of EM Asia, except India. Equities: Retail traders are chasing ‘hot’ stocks. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment report surprised to the downside as confidence took a turn for the worse in July. The downshift in sentiment was substantial. Europe: The euro continues to advance. Equities: Here is the S&P 500 seasonality chart, which shows the market performance 60 days out. The …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 17th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The declines in initial jobless claims have stalled. The labor market recovery may take years. United Kingdom: Unemployment claims declined in June. Remarkably, the unemployment rate is holding below 4%. Europe: Here are the Q2 GDP estimates by country. Equities: Here is the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index showed an impressive improvement in factory activity. It’s worth noting that New York and New Jersey were late to reopen, and some of the rebound is due to pent-up demand. The expectations index is off the highs but remains elevated. United Kingdom: This year’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The headline CPI increased, driven by the recovery in fuel costs and soaring food prices. Market-based inflation expectations have nearly recovered from the pandemic-led decline. China: The nation’s trade surplus is near multi-year highs on a year-to-date basis. Equities: Here is a summary of S&P 500 dividend cuts, suspensions, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The 2020 federal deficit is rapidly approaching $3 trillion after the biggest monthly increase on record in June (see story). Europe: Here is the IMF’s latest GDP projection for the EU. China: Foreign investors are increasingly buying Chinese government debt for safety and yield. Equities: Analysts’ earnings estimates …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: Tech mega-caps increasingly dominate the US benchmark. Rates: Speculative investors are now net long the 10yr note futures. Energy: Last month’s Dallas Fed Energy survey showed that nearly 75% of energy and production firms are expected to restore their curtailed output over the next three months. Stockpiles of gasoline and …
