Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: The stock market is pricing in higher inflation ahead. Here is the relative performance of stocks that benefit from increased inflation vs. those that underperform when prices climb. Rates: US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 25th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: Stock futures are higher as Biden’s formal transition begins. Investors also breathed a sigh of relief on Yellen’s nomination for the Treasury Secretary (as opposed to Elizabeth Warren, for example). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 24th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. United States: US daily new COVID cases are approaching 200k. Below is the share of US states (GDP-weighted) where daily infections are rising. China: The renminbi has not moved into the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The US Treasury is pulling the plug on some of the emergency programs it put in place with the Fed (red arrows below). China: Investors have been selling high-rated state-owned-enterprise (SOE) bonds in provinces where local governments have poor reputations, according to Gavekal. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ownership is becoming more …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Many households are concerned about not being able to pay the next month’s rent. United Kingdom: Regret? China: Chinese IPOs in the US exceeded $11 billion this year. Energy: US gasoline inventories are back above the 5-year average. And gasoline demand remains relatively soft. Equities: November 9th …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: October retail sales were softer than expected amid signs of consumer activity losing momentum. Nonetheless, the overall rebound has been remarkable. Asia-Pacific: The world’s busiest domestic flight routes are in Asia. Emerging Markets: Until the pandemic, the short-end of EM yield curves has been uncorrelated with manufacturing PMIs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: Moderna’s vaccine news sent the Dow to a new record as we approach 30k. Alternatives: US public pensions are among the world’s biggest private-equity investors. Credit: The AAA spread curve for US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) shows strong demand for long duration. News of the COVID-19 vaccine led to a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment index surprised to the downside this month. As we’ve seen earlier, presidential elections tend to have a substantial impact on US sentiment indicators. Republicans are more upbeat about the current situation (1st panel), while Democrats are more optimistic about the future (2nd panel). However, the expectations …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The October CPI report showed a slowdown in price increases, with both the headline and the core inflation figures coming in below consensus. Zillow data point to more downside for rent inflation. United Kingdom: The rebound in factory production is slowing. China: Rates are rising across the board. Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2020”
Greetings, Credit: Let’s begin with the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Given the strength in the housing market, banks have been easing lending standards on mortgages. Consumer credit demand (credit cards, auto loans, etc.) has rebounded. Equities: A substantial increase in Treasury yields could pose a risk for growth stocks, especially the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2020”
