The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,   United States: Factory orders continued to climb in August.   Eurozone: Will euro-area PMI catch up to the US ISM, …   … or will China derail Eurozone’s manufacturing expansion?   Emerging Markets: India’s coal inventories have collapsed.   Energy: Brent climbed above $81/bbl after bullish news from OPEC+.   Credit: A large …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 5th, 2021”

Greetings,   United States: The Treasury market continues to show investors’ unease with the debt ceiling situation (potential risk of default). The X-Date is expected to hit later this month. Here is the T-bill yield curve. Some are calling for the US Treasury to issue a trillion-dollar coin and deposit it at the Fed, which …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 4th, 2021”

Greetings,   Administrative Update: As a reminder, the next Daily Shot will be published on Monday, October 4th.   United States: US exports of goods hit another record high in August.   United Kingdom: Natural gas prices jumped another 10% on Wednesday. This trend will leave a mark on the economy. The UK relies heavily …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 30th, 2021”

Greetings,   United States: The risk of a technical default remains priced into the Treasury curve, which is inverted at the short end.   Eurozone: Capital Economics expects surging natural gas prices to bring the headline CPI to 4% this year.   China: Financing for developers has been tightening (2 charts).   Emerging Markets: Which …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 29th, 2021”

Greetings,   Energy: US frac spread count picked up momentum as prices surge.   Equities: Rate-sensitive stocks such as utilities and REITs sold off.   Commodities: Commodity ETFs are seeing outflows after months of massive inflows.   Cryptocurrency: Some traders have piled into DeFi tokens in the wake of China’s crypto ban.   By the way, Uniswap …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 28th, 2021”

Greetings,   Equities: Goldman’s “reopening” index massively outperformed “stay at home” stocks last week. Airlines got a boost from easing travel rules.   Credit: The US corporate debt-to-equity ratio is extraordinarily low (as the stock market continues to rally)..   Rates: TIPS yields (implied real rates) have climbed in recent days (which tends to be …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2021”

Greetings,   United Kingdom: Despite some growth headwinds, the BoE tilted more hawkish this week. The central bank is signaling a rate hike in the “medium term.” The BoE’s statement follows the Fed’s hawkish dot-plot and taper announcement a day earlier.   United States: The fiscal stimulus helped.   Eurozone: Growth in business activity slowed …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 24th, 2021”

Greetings,   United States: The FOMC acknowledged the recent pandemic-induced economic slowdown but signaled the beginning of taper (probably in November). Moreover, Jerome Powell expects to complete tapering by mid-2022 (some analysts expected the Fed to reduce its purchases more gradually). Here is the September FOMC statement compared to the previous one. With more Committee …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 22nd, 2021”

Greetings,   United States: Despite some recent talk of a pause in the housing market, high-frequency data from Redfin shows demand near multi-year highs.   United Kingdom: Will industrial production follow?   Eurozone: Barclays expects economic activity to return to pre-crisis levels next quarter, in line with the ECB.   China: The PBoC injected more …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 22nd, 2021”

Greetings,   China: Debt of leveraged property companies remains under pressure. However, analysts doubt that the property debt crunch is China’s “Lehman moment.”   Emerging Markets: Hedge funds have been buying EM currencies in recent weeks.   Equities: Other US domestic issues also pose risks, including tech regulation and a potential surprise from the Fed …

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 21st, 2021”