The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wholesale used vehicle prices are down almost 15% from a year ago.

Weaker fertilizer prices signal lower food inflation ahead.

Europe: Are outflows from European equity funds over?

Cryptocurrency: Investors are betting that the GBTC discount to NAV will narrow.

Commodities: Palladium has not participated in the precious metals rally.

Equities: The S&P 500 will face resistance near 4,000.

Global Developments: The market is sitting on significant USD cash exposure, which is vulnerable to further liquidation as the dollar’s safe-haven appeal declines, according to Deutsche Bank.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the global Lorenz Curve.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: Total consumer credit is now above the pre-COVID trend.

In the labor market, job gains have been the highest in sectors that experienced the biggest COVID-shock losses.

Equities: US shares with higher international sales have been outperforming as the dollar weakens and China reopens.

Credit: The largest HY ETF saw a hefty capital inflow last week.

Emerging Markets: EM stocks are officially in a bull market.

Japan: The 10yr JGB is once again testing the BoJ’s resolve, with some trades taking place above the 0.5% cap.

Global Developments: Hedge funds are boosting their bets against the dollar.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are cold and flu medicine preferences:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Wage growth surprised to the downside, boosting hopes for slower inflation ahead.

Stocks surged as the payrolls data and ISM report showed signs of easing inflation.

The Eurozone: Euro-area inflation dropped more than expected last month, but the core CPI continued to climb.

China: Chinese A-shares are attractively valued relative to history, while investable/offshore stocks are not particularly cheap.

Emerging Markets: India is forecasting a 7% GDP growth in 2023.

Cryptocurrency: SOL bounced last week after a massive drop in 2022.

Commodities: Copper is rallying amid China’s reopening and a softer US dollar.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the US teacher shortages.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: Economists don’t see significant increases in unemployment going forward.

Looking toward the housing market, here is home price appreciation by price tier.

The Eurozone: Here are the CPI trends for Spain, France, and Germany.

Equities: What returns should we expect over the next 5 and 10 years, given the current S&P 500 valuation (PE ~16.6x)?

Rates: The Fed’s quantitative tightening has picked up momentum. But, the MBS portfolio unwind has been slow due to collapsed mortgage refi activity.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptos had a good week, with Litecoin (LTC) outperforming other large tokens.

Food for Thought: To conclude the week, here is who betting markets expect the next Speaker of the House will be:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The market sees rate cuts starting as soon as July, despite the FOMC minutes stating “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023.”

The labor market imbalance persists, with over 1.7 job openings per unemployed American.

China: Beijing is stepping up its efforts to bail out property developers. Developers’ stocks and bonds are rallying (two charts).

The United Kingdom: Foreigners continue to dump gilts.

Japan: Traders are pressing their bets against the BoJ’s yield control policy via JGB futures.

Equities: Earnings expectations have been correlated with US job openings.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are expected cybercrime costs:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Real consumer spending on services keeps climbing.

But excess savings continue to dwindle, pointing to softer consumption ahead.

The Eurozone: Despite a weak start of the year for the euro, the currency has entered a golden cross. A golden cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major rally. The golden cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses above its long-term moving average.

China: Stocks are surging in Hong Kong.

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is at support.

Equities:  The S&P equal-weight index has been outperforming due to lower exposure to mega-caps and higher exposure to value.

Credit: Banks are sitting on substantial unrealized losses.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the history of innovation cycles.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of states with negative growth is now at the level that signals a recession.

Equities: 2022 saw the largest annual decline for the S&P 500 since 2008.

Back-to-back annual losses are rare, but the odds of the bear market continuing remain elevated, according to MarketDesk Research.

The Eurozone: The sharp decline in the M1 (narrow) money supply growth points to downside risks for business activity.

Asia – Pacific: The pace of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector contraction has softened.

Emerging Markets: EM previously led global equity rallies after recessions.

Global Developments: M&A activity slowed sharply as 2022 progressed.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is a map showing where yellow or white light is more commonly used:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Home prices declined less than expected in October, with sellers holding the line.

The gap between wages and home prices remains wide.

China: The official PMI report showed business activity contracting faster in December. Employment metrics are deteriorating rapidly

Cryptocurrencies: 2022 was a rough year for cryptos.

Here’s a look at the correlation between cryptos and a few selected assets.

Commodities: Here’s a look at the performance of commodities in 2022.

Equities: Here’s the yearly performance attribution data of the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s the average home size by state.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

Welcome to the Food for Thought Special Edition!

Business: Here are the fastest-growing brands by generation.

Economic Trends: Here are the countries with the highest inflation rates.

Demographic Trends: Here’s a look at fertility rates in advanced economies.

The US fertility rate remains below the replacement level.

Geopolitics: Here’s an update on North Korea’s missile tests.

US Politics: Let’s take a look at views on the Supreme Court.

News: Here are the most salient news events by party.

Happy New Year: A traditional New Year’s celebration.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: The 6-month decline in the Conference Board’s leading index has never been this large without a recession.

Equities: Tight liquidity is signaling rapid declines in earnings globally.

Commodities: Computer memory prices are hitting multi-year lows.

The bird flu has led to unprecedented increases in egg prices in the US.

Energy: Pictet expects global oil demand to rise next year, driven by a recovery in Western economies and a reopening in China.

Alternatives: Private equity investors will expect higher investment outperformance relative to public markets.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are favorited Christmas songs:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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