The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Employment growth has slowed the most in cycle-sensitive sectors.

Unit labor costs increased less than expected last quarter.

The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps, …

… amid elevated inflation and wage growth.

Equities:Tech shares drove outperformance in several sectors over the past few days.

The Eurozone:More rate hikes are coming.

Commodities: The inverse correlation between gold and US real yields has weakened.

Food for Thought: Pedestrian deaths:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC’s focus is now on the components of the core inflation index sensitive to wage growth, such as food services.

The ADP private payrolls report is signaling a hiring slowdown in January. It’s unclear if this softening will be reflected in the official jobs report.

Equities: Companies with international sales exposure continue to outperform as the US dollar softens.

VIX dipped below 18 for the first time in over a year.

Global Developments: January was a strong month for global assets, following a challenging 2022.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PMI signaled slower manufacturing contraction.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index broke out into “greed” territory for the first time since March 2022.

Food for Thought: It’s Groundhog Day. Here are some stats:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US employment cost index falls for the third quarter.

• The 1-year US sovereign credit default swap spread signals market fears similar to 2011. The market expects the government to take the debt ceiling fight to the brink.

Canada: Economic growth slowed in November but remained in positive territory.

China:The manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global was less upbeat than the official report. Factory activity remains in contraction mode.

United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals in the United Kingdom fall significantly.

Commodities: Coffee futures are rebounding.

Equities: Small caps have been outperforming.

Food for Thought: Who lost money on crypto?

Edited by Josh  Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The market has been betting against the FOMC dot plot.

Canada: The market expects the next BoC move to be a rate cut.

China: As China’s economy reopens, consumers are opening their wallets (2 charts).

The Eurozone: Germany’s GDP unexpectedly declined last quarter.

Equities: Earnings misses have been resulting in outperformance so far. Too much enthusiasm?

Rates: Treasury futures positioning is extraordinarily bearish.

Food for Thought: Here are tech layoffs by sector:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The overall consumer spending level is back on its pre-COVID trend.

Source: The Daily Shot

Rates: Rate markets’ implied volatility continues to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

The Eurozone: Euro-area economic surprises have boosted investor sentiment.

Source: TS Lombard

Emerging Markets: Performance data of currencies from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

Equities: Next, we have the performance of each sector from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

Global Developments: The US dollar weakened during the 2011 debt ceiling impasse.

Source: ING

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here are the largest sports betting states.

Source: @OpenAxisHQ

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The Q4 GDP growth was stronger than expected.

The broad money supply has not registered a year-over-year decline like this in decades, which should help cool inflation.

Rates: The market is pricing a faster pace of Fed rate cuts than it did a month ago.

The Eurozone: Investors keep flooding into European stocks.

Emerging Markets: India’s Nifty index is under pressure as Adani companies’ share prices plunge.

Equities: BofA wealth management clients have been dumping REITs.

Global Developments: Here is the IMF World Uncertainty Index.

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here’s life expectancy vs. GDP per capita.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage rates are down 100 bps from the recent highs.

Canada: The BoC hiked rates by 25 bps and signaled a pause. The market doesn’t see any more rate increases in this cycle, with rate cuts kicking in later this year.

The Eurozone: Goldman no longer expects a recession in the Eurozone.

Asia – Pacific: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the Bank of Korea to raise rates by another 25 bps. Rate cuts could begin around Q4 2023.

Energy: US natural gas futures dipped below $3.0/MMBtu.

Commodities: Political troubles in Peru have been a tailwind for both copper and silver.

Emerging Markets: EM local currency sovereign bonds, particularly in LatAm, significantly outperformed despite a strong dollar and rising global inflation.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the global GDP by country in 2022:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is the ratio of cyclical-to-defensive stocks versus the ISM manufacturing PMI.

Full-time workers’ real wage growth has turned positive.

The Eurozone: The composite PMI climbed above 50, signaling a return to growth.

Australia: Inflation remains hot, with the Q4 report surprising to the upside. The Aussie dollar and bond yields jumped on the report.

China: The reopening-driven economic rebound has been unusually quick.

Commodities: Uranium supply has been insufficient to meet annual reactor requirements. The deficit is expected to continue over the coming years, which could raise the price of uranium.

Equities: US equities have been the most effective hedge against inflation relative to other asset classes over any period between one and 20 years. According to Goldman, commodities have not been a good hedge, based on their risk/return profile in long-term portfolios.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the use of ChatGPT in the workplace.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators has never declined this much in six months without a recession (the index goes back to the late 1950s).

The Eurozone: Consumer confidence has been recovering from extreme lows.

Equities: Volatility traders are focused on the first few days of February.

One final bounce before the recession?

China: The World Economics SMI report shows slower declines in China’s business activity this month. Sales growth gained momentum.

Developers are looking to Beijing for financing support to restart construction.

Energy: US refined product exports hit a multi-year high.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the maximum speed limit in Europe (100 km = 62 miles):

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Existing home sales were very weak in December, down 36% in 2022. This is the biggest annual decline in decades.

US gasoline prices are on track for their first monthly gain since last June.

The Eurozone: Dutch home price declines have accelerated.

Emerging Markets: EM total equity returns have significantly underperformed developed markets in the past decade, having significantly outperformed in the previous decade.

Commodities: Turkish central bank has been buying a lot of gold.

This map shows the global soybean trade, with much of it headed for China.

Energy: Russia sold a lot of oil in December (which will buy plenty of cheap North Korean artillery shells and rockets).

Equities: The market rewarded tech layoffs last week.

Food for Thought: Here’s a breakdown of the US federal budget.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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