The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: While the ADP index is not well correlated to the official nonfarm payrolls (Establishment Survey) on a monthly basis, the trends tend to converge over time.

Canada: The trade balance unexpectedly swung into deficit amid lower commodity prices.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s goods trade balance is back in surplus.

Emerging Markets: EM equities typically outperform after US recessions.

Energy: Shares of uranium producers are under pressure.

Equities: International shares continue to underperform the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: US college enrollment rates:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Based on market pricing, the monetary policy is already fairly restrictive.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PPI is in negative territory on a year-over-year basis.

China: China’s stocks have underperformed global peers. Here are tech stocks:

Emerging Markets: India’s services growth remains robust.

Equities: The S&P 500 traded around the low end of its average pre-recession range. Performance typically flattens 6-12 months before a recession begins.

Global Developments: The surge in trade as a share of global GDP has plateaued since the financial crisis.

Food for Thought: Here is the number of transistors per microprocessor:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Construction spending jumped in May, …

… boosted by a sharp increase in residential investment.

The United Kingdom: Here is the rate swap curve.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s electronics sector remains in contraction territory.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw a second week of inflows led by long-bitcoin products. Short-bitcoin funds continued to see outflows last week. (2 charts)

Equities: On an equal-weight basis, the S&P 500 industrial sector reached an all-time high, outpacing the S&P 500’s drawdown recovery.

Food for Thought: Losing money in Vegas:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The supercore inflation measure slowed in May but remains elevated on a year-over-year basis.

Equities: Outside the tech mega-caps, S&P 500 valuations look reasonable.

Stocks have diverged from reserve balances (liquidity).

Global Developments: Here is a look at performance during the first half of 2023, with bonds and stocks improving. However, performance is very narrow over the past 18 months, with some commodities outperforming.

Asia-Pacific: Factories in Taiwan are rapidly reducing staff.

The United Kingdom: Speculative bets on the pound hit the highest level since 2014.

Food for Thought: Here is the estimated prevalence of modern slavery around the world:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: This chart shows the growth in real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the “core” GDP).

The United Kingdom: The broad money supply is now flat year-over-year (2 charts).

China: Consumption is improving as households utilize savings.

Energy: Uranium demand is expected to surge.

Equities: Retail investors remain bullish.

Alternatives: Middle-market private equity share of fundraising surged this year.

Food for Thought: Women’s right to vote (globally):

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Tighter credit conditions typically precede labor market weakness.

Equities: The Russell 2000 has been much more volatile than the S&P 500 recently.

The Eurozone: The Bund curve hasn’t been this inverted in decades.

China: The PBoC is getting more aggressive in steering the renminbi higher, but for now, it’s not working.

Emerging Markets: Asian currencies have been moving lower.

Commodities: US grains are reversing the recent surge. Here is Bloomberg’s grain index:

Food for Thought: Here is a snapshot of recent air quality in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed in June, topping expectations. The report confirmed the latest gain in the Penta-CivicScience index (see chart from yesterday).

The United Kingdom: The UK wage growth has been outpacing inflation (unlike in the US).

The Eurozone: EUR/USD’s trading range this year is near the lowest in history.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s monthly inflation index surprised to the downside.

Commodities: Milk futures continue to crash.

Food for Thought: US senators’ assets over time:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing release shows that factories are now cutting prices.

Equities: IPO activity is rebounding.

Credit: Multifamily debt delinquencies have been rising.

The United Kingdom: Last week witnessed the largest surge in speculators’ bets on British pound futures ever recorded.

The Eurozone: Inflation is narrowing across the Eurozone.

Emerging Markets: The Argentine peso devaluation is accelerating.

Food for Thought: Here are space launches by company:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Existing home sales remain depressed but were slightly above forecasts last month.

The United Kingdom: A policy error?

China: China’s currency and stocks are down as the market reopens after the holidays.

Commodities: The rise in renewable electricity generation could substantially boost demand for copper. (2 charts)

Equities: Last week’s market pullback was consistent with historical patterns.

Food for Thought: Declining demand for pizza delivery:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United Kingdom: Short-term rates continue to surge, with markets pricing multiple BoE rate hikes ahead.

Elevated wage growth and extreme energy price shock explain why UK CPI has been outpacing other economies.

The United States: The supply of homes for sale continues to sink.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 trailing PE ratio jumped by almost 50% over the past six months – a highly unusual move.

Credit: With many existing CLOs ending their reinvestment periods, new CLOs will have no shortage of product to buy.

Emerging Markets: Mexico stands to gain from the US-China decoupling.

Commodities: US grains continue to surge as crop conditions deteriorate. Here is Bloomberg’s grain index:

Food for Thought: Here is New Zealand’s sheep-to-people ratio:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief