The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The effective US tariff rate is now at its highest level in 125 years.

Here are the tariffs expressed as a percentage of GDP.

The Eurozone: This chart shows the services trade balance with the US.

Commodities: Gold continues to surge, …

China: The renminbi took a hit after the US tariff announcement.

Emerging Markets: The IMF projects slowing GDP growth in Russia through 2026.

Global Developments: The newly announced US tariffs introduce a universal 10% duty on all imports, effective April 5, 2025, with higher “reciprocal” tariffs targeting specific countries starting April 9, 2025. Asia and Europe were hit the hardest.

Food for Thought: Tesla vehicle deliveries:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: This chart shows the changes by sector.

The Eurozone: The unemployment rate hit a new low in February.

Commodities: A breakout in commodities could support Canadian equities relative to US equities and CAD/USD.

Equities: Share buyback activity remains robust this year.

Credit: US high-yield spreads remain low compared with the spike in policy uncertainty.

Global Developments: Copper, gold, and silver remained in the lead this year, while US equities have lagged.

Food for Thought: The 25 largest US banks by assets:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US financial conditions tightened in recent days.

China: The manufacturing PMI report from S&P Global showed stronger activity in March.

The Eurozone: The euro-area’s stagflation indicator has sharply diverged from the US.

Commodities:  We have the year-to-date performance across key commodity markets.

Rates: This chart illustrates the attribution of year-to-date changes in Treasury yields.

Emerging Markets: Ukraine’s Q4 GDP growth surprised to the downside.

Ukrainian bonds and GDP warrants have reversed nearly all gains made after Trump’s election, as peace hopes fade and geopolitical tensions resurface. The GDP warrant’s sharp drop underscores market doubts about near-term growth and a credible truce, especially amid renewed friction over the minerals deal and missed economic triggers.

Food for Thought: Per-capita consumption of dairy products in the US:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Last month’s rebound in US consumer spending from January’s weather-related slump was tepid, falling short of expectations.

China: How do Chinese stocks perform relative to their US counterparts across different economic regimes?

The Eurozone: Germany’s unemployment continues to rise.

Commodities: Bets on feeder cattle futures are surging.

Rates: This chart shows the attribution of the 10-year Treasury yield over time.

Emerging Markets: Economists increasingly expect very slow growth in Mexico this year.

Food for Thought: US vehicle sales by country of manufacture:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer goods imports reached a new high.

Canada: TSX Composite long-term breadth remained in expansion territory.

Cryptocurrency: Most cryptos appear oversold based on the one-week RSI heatmap.

Commodities: Silver has also been rallying.

Equities: Car repair businesses are projected to see a surge in demand as Americans opt to maintain existing vehicles over purchasing new ones. Here is the share price of Driven Brands.

Food for Thought: Lego’s revenue growth:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Multiple contraction has been the main source of the market’s recent weakness.

Rates: The sharp rise in 5-year call/put skew reflects surging demand for upside exposure as traders hedge against a Fed pivot amid tariff-driven uncertainty. This growing premium underscores the market’s conviction that intermediate Treasuries offer the best risk-reward profile in a volatile macro environment.

The Eurozone: Germany’s DAX has sharply outperformed the S&P 500 this year, on par with its 2015 record.

Asia-Pacific: The 10-year JGB yield hit the highest level since the GFC.

Emerging Markets: EM-ex-China funds experienced significant outflows this month.

Global Developments: The market is no longer pricing any risk premium on the dollar.

The United States: Vehicle and parts orders increased sharply.

Food for Thought: Baggage fee revenue across major US airlines:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US consumer confidence deteriorated further this month, according to the Conference Board’s survey.

Equities: It’s been a good couple of days for the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s consumer confidence stabilized this month.

The United Kingdom: Economists have been downgrading their estimates for household consumption growth in 2025.

China: The Hang Seng TECH Index is holding support.

Alternatives: Here is a look at payout ratios for some of the largest private equity firms.

Food for Thought: DC job postings vs. the national average:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Commodities: US egg prices have dropped by more than 50% from their peak in recent weeks.

Equities: Companies with high exposure to the US government have widened their outperformance.

Emerging Markets: Turkish authorities have capped USD/TRY at 38. Will it hold?

The United Kingdom: The UK manufacturing sector appears to be in recession as demand crumbles.

Credit: Here is a look at leveraged loan issuance backed by private equity funds.

Global Developments: Military spending is beginning to rise after a prolonged period of decline.

Food for Thought: Betting markets’ odds of US tariff increases:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending growth is expected to slow this quarter.

The United Kingdom: Industrial orders remain soft.

China: The stock market rally has paused.

Commodities: Copper futures continue to move higher.

Equities: Investors are becoming increasingly underweight in small caps.

Food for Thought: Share of women scientists and engineers in Europe:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Cost pressures have intensified.

The United Kingdom: Unemployment claims increased in February.

Europe: Eurozone construction output has been rebounding.

Cryptocurrency: The estimated stablecoin share of US national debt has risen in recent years.

Equities: After entering correction territory, the stock market’s trajectory will hinge on whether the US falls into a recession.

Food for Thought: US national park visitor spending and economic impact:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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