Greetings, The United States: This study shows the impact of tariff increases on the economy. Equity Markets: Is VIX being manipulated? Any index that relies on quotes rather than transactions is vulnerable. China: China’s new unemployment index is nearly as useless as the previous one. Energy Markets: The Brent options …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Higher gasoline prices more than offset the benefits of reduced income taxes for low-income Americans. Equity Markets: Corporate cash hits new highs. Will we see more stock buybacks? China: Household incomes are growing slower than the GDP. However, the “smoothed” official GDP may be overstated. Energy Markets: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Both soft- and hard-data US economic surprise indices have declined in recent months. Equity Markets: Below we have the recent S&P 500 revenue revisions vs. the 5-year range (by sector). China: Slowing credit expansion is one of the reasons economists are forecasting a weaker GDP growth. Energy …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Retail sales rebounded in March, returning to the recent trend. However, the “control group” retail sales (excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services) were disappointing (second chart). Equity Markets: How long before the start of a recession does the market experience the most amount pain? China: China’s manufacturing …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The massive US underinvestment in infrastructure continues. Equity Markets: The chart below shows the S&P 500 “sectoral dominance” over the past two decades. China: Luxury goods sales in China keep climbing. Energy Markets: This chart shows US oil production by state. Canada: Canada’s residential mortgage …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 13th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley also predicts that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure will hit 2%. Equity Markets: Will we see more pressure on IPO fees after the Spotify deal? Credit: The corporate debt service burden has not risen as much as the overall debt levels. Will the situation worsen as …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Analysts’ views on the US housing market have shifted to the downside. Is it too early to be concerned about the housing cycle coming to an end? Equity Markets: The buyback basket has been outperforming, suggesting a spike in share buybacks this year. Credit: The leveraged loan index …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of jobs as well as corporate profits by industry. Equity Markets: Will the dollar weakness boost corporate earnings this year? Credit: Here is an update on high-yield default rares. Emerging Markets: Brazilians’ trust in their political leadership is extraordinarily low. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Is the trade deficit with China lower than it appears? The charts below show what happens when services, trade with Hong Kong, and the value-add import adjustments are incorporated. Equity Markets: We continue to see investor sentiment souring rapidly. Here is the retail investor sentiment index from TD …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Some economists suggest that the US (and global) factory activity is about to slow substantially (“VP” = Variant Perception). Equity Markets: According to one measure of investor sentiment, the bull/bear ratio is now below one. And investment managers have significantly cut their exposure to the stock market. A …
