Greetings, The United States: The spread between US households’ views on “current conditions” and “future expectations” is highly elevated. Are we approaching peak levels (usually a precursor to an economic slowdown)? China: Here is a comparison of China’s market capitalization with Japan. Cryptocurrency: How do cryptocurrency transaction speeds compare to other payment platforms? …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US job growth trends across the skills spectrum. China: Developers in China are highly leveraged. Global Developments: Manufacturing activity growth is slowing globally. Emerging Markets: Are EM fund flows stabilizing? Food for Thought: The costliest disasters: Edited by Joseph Cohen To receive …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Credit card rates in the US have sharply diverged from the prime rate. China: Here are the components of the official PMI measure (shown in yesterday’s Daily Shot). Rates: With the federal government’s appetite growing and the Fed trimming its balance sheet, private investors will need to absorb …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows what portion of the second-quarter GDP growth can be attributed to the federal government stimulus as well as the pre-tariffs export burst. Here are the key drivers of growth over the past few years. China: China’s offshore bond yields are still climbing. Rates: Here is …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: A significant portion of this year’s GDP growth is due to the federal government stimulus. But the party ends in 2020. The Eurozone: The ECB didn’t provide much new information regarding policy direction. Here are some updates. • The ECB balance sheet forecast from UBS: Average life of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% GDP growth for the second quarter. Massive soybean exports ahead of China’s retaliatory tariffs boosted net exports (light blue). The Eurozone: Germany’s Ifo business climate index showed increasing uncertainty. The spread between the current situation measure and business expectations continues to widen. The biggest …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: We haven’t seen these levels of labor market tightness and strong demand conditions since the late 1990s (right before the recession). China: Beijing made it clear that it will work to boost growth in response to the rising risks to the economy. With shadow banking expansion presumably under control, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Oxford Economics is forecasting 4.5% GDP growth for Q2 (annualized), with expansion moderating in the second half of the year. The soft-hard data divergence persists. One of the contributors to the outsized GDP growth in Q2 was a sharp increase in soybean exports ahead of the tariffs. China: Foreign …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The last time we had so few Americans filing for unemployment was in 1969. Layoffs remain rare amid tight labor markets. China: Are China’s stocks attractive at this point? Global Developments: Who owns each nation’s government debt? This chart shows government bond yields globally (as well as the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Commercial freight activity is off the highs but remains elevated. Freight spending is still climbing as shipping companies boost prices. China: Despite the currency weakness, the implied volatility has been relatively subdued. Rates: How did the dollar respond to rate hikes in the past? Equity Markets: Growth …
