The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Industrial production also surprised to the upside, with robust gains in manufacturing output.

The United Kingdom: The payrolls estimate declined again, pointing to a softening labor market.

Commodities: The global corn market is expected to be in surplus next year, according to Capital Economics.

Equities: November is typically a strong month for inflows into equity ETFs and mutual funds.

Credit: The European high-yield market has a greater share of debt maturing in three years relative to the US.

Rates: According to Capital Economics, Treasury yields are peaking.

Food for Thought: Union membership as a share of employment in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The number of states with significant increases in continuing jobless claims keeps rising.

Canada: The BoC business survey indicator deteriorated further in Q3.

Equities: Valuations based on the 24-month earnings projections remain decoupled from real rates.

Emerging Markets: EM equities appear fairly valued, unlike the US, which could bolster higher relative returns over the next five years.

Rates: Treasury fund inflows tend to accelerate at the end of rate hiking cycles.

Cryptocurrency:  A false report about a BlackRock spot-BTC ETF approval triggered a spike in bitcoin toward $30K on Monday.

Food for Thought: Companies are increasingly concerned about shoplifting.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The October U. Michigan consumer sentiment indicator declined more than anticipated.

China: Capital outflows persist.

Commodities: Gold surged last week on geopolitical uncertainty but hit resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Energy: The US oil rig count registered a rare increase last week.

Equities: The “big tech” concentration is powering the S&P 500 profit growth estimates.

Global Developments: Wage growth is slowing.

Food for Thought: Definitions of “financially comfortable” and “wealthy” across US metro areas:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The September CPI report topped expectations, suggesting that the Fed’s effort to curb inflation remains a work in progress.

The United Kingdom: The monthly GDP index was up slightly in August.

Commodities: It was a good week for gold, bolstered by the unfolding developments in the Middle East

Energy: US crude oil inventories surged last week.

Equities: Bullish sentiment is in the bottom decile for the first time in almost a year.

Rates: Stagflation environments are typically negative for Treasuries.

Food for Thought: Music piracy:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: At this point, the market does not expect a rate hike in November.

Equities: Have systematic strategies/investors oversold during the market pullback?

The Eurozone: According to Goldman’s indicator, euro-area financial conditions haven’t been this tight since the GFC.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged to a record high  as exports unexpectedly climbed above last year’s level.

Energy: Crude oil prices are retreating from earlier gains that were spurred by the surge in Middle East violence.

Credit: The debt maturity walls for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 look very different.

Food for Thought: A rebound in IT spending expectations:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment indicator declined last month.

The United Kingdom: The leading indicator of house prices in the UK has diverged from that of Sweden.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey expectations index surprised to the downside.

Commodities: US orange juice futures continue to hit record highs.

Equities: The current market bounce does not appear to show a lot of short covering.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury term premium turned positive for the second time since 2016.

Food for Thought: Missing school (2 charts):

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The probability of a rate hike in November declined as Fed officials’ concern grew about rising Treasury yields and tightening financial conditions.

Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 2-year rate dipping below 5%.

Energy: Oil implied volatility continues to rise.

Credit: Cat bonds have been outperforming.

Equities: The disparity between valuations and real yields extends beyond the tech-heavy S&P 500. Here is the equal-weighted index:

China: After the Evergrande fiasco, markets viewed Country Garden as a relatively safe bet. That bet didn’t end well.

Emerging Markets: USD/IDR is at resistance as the Indonesian rupiah weakens.

Food for Thought: AI and intellectual property:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumer credit tumbled in August as borrowers paid down some of their student debt.

The United Kingdom: Traders turned bearish on the pound last week.

Energy: Oil futures jumped in response to escalating violence in the Middle East.

Credit: Oil & Gas companies accounted for 19% of the overall high-yield new issue supply this year.

China: EV exports are booming, but so are exports of cars with internal combustion engines.

Canada: The probability of a BoC rate hike this month jumped after the wage growth surprise.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s core inflation is easing rapidly.

Food for Thought: Annual home ownership cost as a percent of median income:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Job cut announcements eased last month and are back at pre-COVID levels.

The United Kingdom: Here is a look at UK carbon emission contract prices vs. the EU.

Emerging Markets: Mexico stocks tumbled after the news on airport fees.

Cryptocurrency: This chart shows the most “crypto-obsessed” countries.

Commodities: Gold entered a death cross and is now firmly in oversold territory.

Equities: The put-call ratio surged this week, pointing to bearish sentiment.

Food for Thought: Student loan debt:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ADP private payrolls report alleviated some concerns about the US labor market’s vitality raised by the job openings data.

Canada: The CFIB Business Barometer points to a downturn in Canada’s GDP.

Energy: Crude oil prices plunged in response to weak gasoline demand in the US.

Equities: The market keeps betting on the US onshoring trend.

The Eurozone: Retail sales dropped sharply in August.

Global Developments: Wider interest rate differentials supported the recent dollar rally.

Food for Thought: Buying vs. renting:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief