Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business conditions index moved lower in response to softer business expectations. The Eurozone: This is not a fair comparison because we are looking at bonds in two different currencies. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that the 5-year Greek government bond yield is now lower than the US equivalent. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of monthly price changes in the core goods CPI. The Eurozone: Will the rebound in Asia provide some relief for the ECB? Equities: Retail investors remain cautious, suggesting that there may be more upside for the stock market. China: This chart shows China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: An index based on legal transactions (LegalShield) does not support the recent jump in existing home sales. The Eurozone: The “gilets jaunes” movement persists. Equities: The global corporate earnings newsflow index has stabilized. China: The housing market policy conditions remain tight (in 2017 Beijing tightened requirements for …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Business credit applications have slowed in the first quarter. The Eurozone: The euro’s historical volatility has tumbled this year (60-day vol shown below). Equities: International developed markets look increasingly undervalued vs. the US. China: Lending is on the rise again. Global Developments: The ANZ Global Leading …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The dollar’s strength will continue to put downward pressure on import prices. The Eurozone: Economists are concerned that the latest weakness in business activity will pressure the labor markets. Equities: The S&P 500 total return index (including dividends) is back at record highs. China: Capital inflows are …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The energy sector has been a drag on durable goods orders. The Eurozone: It’s not going to be a good year for Germany’s GDP growth. Equities: Analysts expect the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to recover rapidly over the next few quarters. China: The renminbi’s volatility has …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 3rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Regional manufacturing surveys point to slower factory input inflation (priced paid) across the US. The Eurozone: Retail currency traders are betting on a rebound in the euro. Equities: High-beta shares have been flying high. Commodities: This chart shows China’s commodity consumption. Global Developments: The US dollar’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 2nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is an index of home price appreciation that breaks the housing market into four price tiers. The Eurozone: The euro-area inflation rate was below consensus forecasts. Equities: These charts show sector performance year-to-date and since last September (market high). Rates: Are we about to see bond …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Despite slower industrial output in recent months, the US continues to outperform other OECD economies. This relative strength is due to lower US reliance on demand from Asia (chart below shows industrial production outperformance). The Eurozone: This chart shows the absolute debt levels for Italy, France, and Germany. …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 29th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US economic growth is expected to remain subdued this year. • The Conference Board Leading Indicator: The Eurozone: Germany’s yield curve has flattened substantially. Here is the 10yr – 2yr Bund spread. Equities: The rally in both bonds and stocks this year has been unusual. China: The yuan’s strength has been …