Greetings, The United States: Are manufacturers struggling with cash flow? Europe: The UK’s GDP drop last quarter was driven by the post-Brexit-deadline destocking. China: Weakness in China’s currency may help arrest producer price deflation. Global Developments: Here is Deutsche Bank’s risk-fear index. Food for Thought: Home price appreciation in California: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Several leading indicators, such as manufacturing labor costs and oil prices, point to slower inflation ahead. Europe: Dutch industrial sales fell by more than 10% (from the previous year) for the first time in a decade. China: Goldman estimates that capital outflows have picked up, although nothing like …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) deteriorated again this month. Europe: Is there more pain ahead for Germany’s economy? China: Monetary conditions have been improving lately, which should offset some of the trade-related headwinds. Global Developments: The weakness in semiconductor sales points to a further slowdown …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Weaker business orders (and diminishing logistics bottlenecks) point to downside risks for transportation and warehousing jobs. Europe: European bank stocks continue to underperform. China: Consumption now makes up a greater share of China’s GDP growth. Global Developments: This chart shows the global disconnect between manufacturing and services …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The employment cost index vs. the prime-age non-employment rate (a variation of the Phillips Curve): The Eurozone: Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate. China: The widening spread between Chinese and US bond yields should provide some support for the renminbi. Credit: Investors can’t get enough of muni funds. Food …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The two charts below show the evolution of US tariffs. The Eurozone: The currency bloc’s producer prices appear to be headed for deflation. China: China was already facing capital outflows. The renminbi’s weakening is expected to accelerate this trend. Global Developments: There is more downside to global trade …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the spread between the ISM orders and inventories (a forward-looking indicator) vs. the ISM composite index. The Eurozone: Businesses increasingly expect a slowdown in hiring. China: Government bond yields are falling. Rates: The shift into bond funds from equity funds continues. The net new …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The recent improvements in economic indicators suggest that deeper rate cuts are unlikely. The Eurozone: Ireland is getting hit by the combination of Europe’s recent industrial weakness and the Brexit uncertainty. China: Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP growth was weaker than expected. Rates: Cutting rates as an “insurance” …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists remain concerned about a slowdown in business investment. The Eurozone: Germany’s consumer inflation hit the lowest level since 2017. China: The July official manufacturing PMI ticked higher but remained below 50. Global Developments: This chart shows each central bank’s target rate in terms of the number of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 30th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Online searches related to industrial activity have been improving. The Eurozone: German recession risks are not insignificant. China: Here is Hong Kong’s opinion poll on the extradition bill. Global Developments: Speculative accounts are now net short the dollar in the futures market. Food for Thought: British views …
