Greetings, The United States: The FOMC minutes confirmed the Fed’s quantitative tightening program aims to trim its Treasury holdings by $60 billion, and its MBS holdings by $35 billion, per month. At some point, the Fed will sell MBS debt outright because the runoff is expected to be too slow to meet the reduction …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 6th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Treasury yields advanced further this morning with news of faster quantitative tightening, which the stock market could no longer ignore. For now, strong household balance sheets are expected to be a tailwind for spending. Europe: Next, high corporate debt makes French firms more vulnerable to rising rates. Russia: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, let’s take a look at a comparison between today’s inflation trends and previous inflation spikes. Europe: Amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis, European nations are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate their dependency on Russian oil. This chart shows Europe’s energy burden relative to the U.S. China: While the authorities …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 4th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, the payrolls report solidified the yield curve inversion. The curve inversion doesn’t mean recession is imminent. The lead time from the 2s/10s inversion can range from seven months to 33 months. Europe: Inflation continues to surge across Europe, partially driven by a 45% increase in the Energy CPI …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Based on the recent wage growth trend, the Fed could push rates above 4%. Europe: April is historically a good month to be long European shares. China: The Markit PMI confirmed the official figures showing manufacturing contraction in March amid lockdowns. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 31st, 2022
Greetings, Eurozone: In the Eurozone, as German and Spanish consumer inflation reaches multi-decade highs, the ECB will be under pressure to act sooner and move faster. Here are the market’s expectations for rapid rate hikes. The United States: Recovery from the pandemic has seen surging airline sales in the US despite hiccups caused by the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 30th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, here are the price gains in home prices by metro area. Now, here is what’s priced into the market for Fed rate hikes. China: Mainland equity markets are finally getting some inflows from foreign/Hong Kong investors. Commodities: Former-USSR nations have been taking market share in global wheat …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 29th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: In equity markets, year-to-date share buyback activity hit a new record. Here is the S&P 500 return attribution over the past decade. Energy: Shares of large U.S. natural-gas companies have been surging following policy shifts. Eurozone: In the Eurozone, the surge in inflation has been driven largely by energy prices. Will …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 28th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Starting off, the 30yr – 5yr portion of the Treasury curve has inverted this morning for the first time since 2006. Mortgage rates continue to surge with Treasury yields, which signals tougher times ahead for homebuilders as affordability deteriorates. The United Kingdom: Next, the UK missed out on the post-COVID …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 25th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, we have an update on the labor market. The seasonally-adjusted indicator for initial jobless claims is at its lowest since 1969, when the US population was much smaller. The tightening of the labor market comes as the Fed weighs a 50bps rate increase. Historically, tighter monetary policy …
