Greetings, United States: The combination of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and higher rates will weigh on economic growth. Next, which sectors are facing the greatest supply-chain stress? Emerging Markets: The ruble rebounded last week as Russia made a payment on its US-dollar bond. Commodities: Commodities pulled back from the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the 30-year mortgage rate is now above 4.5% Commodities: Here is the world’s commodity import exposure to Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Energy: Crude oil is rebounding. On the other hand, Russian crude oil discount to Brent continues to widen, attracting some buyers. Equities: Fund managers increasingly prefer …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 17th, 2022
Greetings, United States: After the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 bps yesterday, the FOMC reduced the 2022 GDP projection and raised inflation forecasts across the board. In addition, oil price shocks have historically led to lower output caused by contractionary monetary policies. Russia: Will we see a rebound in Russian debt? …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 16th, 2022
Greetings, China: After the worst stock market slump since 2008 (amid a surge in COVID cases), Beijing has had enough. The authorities announced a number of measures to support the markets. Subsequently, Hong Kong and mainland shares jumped in response to the announcement. United States: Financial conditions have tightened sharply this year. According …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Seven Fed rate hikes for 2022 are now fully priced in. The chart below shows the futures market’s expectations for rate increases (in addition to the 25 bps hike this month). Eurozone: Economists have sharply reduced their GDP forecasts while bumping up inflation projections – a stagflationary trend. As a …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The 10-year yield is back above 2%. Meanwhile, the Treasury curve keeps flattening. Commodities: Here is last week’s performance across different commodity markets. Energy: US shale oil production and fracking fleet counts are recovering, albeit still below pre-pandemic levels. A wave of exploration and production activity could occur …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The CPI report was in line with expectations, as inflation hit the highest level in over 40 years. Energy: Energy markets are well off recent highs. Meanwhile, uranium prices are surging. Eurozone: The ECB will wind down QE sooner than expected, but will delay rate hikes due to the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 10th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The CPI peak projections keep getting pushed out by economists The labor market remains tight, with the job openings report topping expectations. Equities: Small caps have been resilient in the recent selloff, with microcaps outperforming over the past week. Eurozone: European natural gas futures tumbled but remain well …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Below is a new index of consumer inflation expectations from ICE. Imports from China are still elevated. Energy: Making plastics is becoming unprofitable in Asia. Demand destruction? Will Russia turn off the spigot? Equities: Risk appetite has deteriorated, but is sentiment about to stabilize? Eurozone: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The yield curve keeps flattening as the market prices in slower growth ahead. This comes as President Biden announces a ban on US imports of Russian oil. Commodities: Nickel exploded to the upside as market participants got caught in a short squeeze (hedges have blown up amid massive margin calls). …