Greetings, The United States: While the private sector of the labor market has rebounded from the pandemic, state and local government job growth has lagged behind. A key reason for lagging public-sector labor supply recovery is sluggish wage growth. A significant component of this trend are public school teachers, many of whom are not returning …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 23rd, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To start, the FOMC dot plot was hawkish, with projections pushed well above market expectations for the end of 2023. In the housing market, affordability is deteriorating rapidly as mortgage rates continue to surge. The United Kingdom: The pound is hitting multi-decade lows vs. USD. China: The World Economics …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 22nd, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Housing starts were stronger than expected, boosted by a surge in multifamily construction. Bank deposits declined sharply last quarter. The Eurozone: Germany’s producer price report was a shocker. The surprise came from electricity prices, driven by unprecedented gains in the cost of natural gas. China: Chinese companies raised …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 21st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, home prices are declining on a month-over-month basis for the first time in a decade. ANZ, Deutsche Bank, and several other research groups see the terminal federal funds rate closer to 5%, which is needed to kick rates into restrictive territory. Equities: Here is how equity …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: FedEx shares plummetted 21% on Friday. What does that tell us about the economy? China: Foreign direct investment remains robust, a multi-year high for this time of the year. Emerging Markets: Russia’s central bank cut rates again. Equities: Here’s last week’s performance by sector. Rates: Speculative accounts …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Initial jobless claims are now firmly under pre-COVID levels, hitting a multi-year low. Investors have been looking for signs of some loosening in the labor market. This report didn’t provide any. The market is now pricing in almost 200 bps of rate hikes between now and the end of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, here are the inflation rates and corresponding weights of CPI components. The US Treasury curve is increasingly inverted, which comes as a 75 bps rate hike this month seems very likely. The Eurozone: The PMI index points to downside risks for euro-area industrial production. Equities: In equity markets, multiple …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The CPI report was highly disappointing, with price gains exceeding estimates Stocks saw the worst one-day rout since 2020. The Eurozone: The euro dipped back below parity as the USD surged. Emerging Markets: Asian currencies declined further after the US CPI shock. Here is the Malaysian ringgit. EM Equity ETFs …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, what could make the Fed “pivot” on rate hikes? (based on BofA’s survey of fund managers) The United Kingdom: UK CPI has been outpacing other advanced economies. The Eurozone: The Eurozone is facing stagflation just as the ECB ramps up rate hikes. Credit: Investment-grade bond ratings shifted to net …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Starting off, used vehicle prices have been declining. Household net worth tumbled last quarter as stocks slumped. The United Kingdom: BoE rate hikes are expected to outpace the Fed’s tightening. Commodities: Commodity trading has been profitable for banks this year. Equities: Short-covering gave stocks a boost last week. Here’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2022”
