Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United States: The 1-year US sovereign credit default swap spread hit another record high as investors become increasingly uneasy with the debt ceiling impasse.

Equities: It will be a busy few days for earnings reports.

Here are sector month-to-date revisions in projected earnings.

Credit: US money supply is contracting but remains elevated in real terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Asia – Pacific South Korea’s Q1 GDP growth was higher than expected.

Global Developments: Sovereign bond yields have declined across G10 nations, led by Treasuries. Weaker interest rate differentials could weigh on the dollar.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin halvings tend to boost prices.

Food for Thought: Lastly, AI has been outperforming human benchmarks:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The PMI Manufacturing index from S&P Global is back above 50, signaling a rebound in US manufacturing. Will we also see a bounce in the ISM Manufacturing PMI this month?

The Eurozone: The composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is in growth territory, driven by services.

Equities: VVIX (implied volatility index of VIX options) has risen even as VIX declines. It indicates increased demand for VIX call options.

A second straight quarter of year-over-year profit declines is not necessarily a headwind for stock prices.

Rates: Speculative investors’ net-short positioning in interest rate futures is still near extreme levels.

Emerging Markets: Economists continue to boost Chile’s GDP forecast, but a 2023 recession remains in the cards.

Commodities: Here is last week’s performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: Here are year-on-year changes in visits to retail and services establishments:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators looks increasingly recessionary.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales declined in March.

Credit: Banks have also borrowed heavily from FHLBs.

Equities: S&P 500 profit margins will see further declines toward average levels.

Energy: US jet fuel inventories have rebounded.

Cryptocurrency: The drop in ETH option skews suggests traders were unwinding their downside hedges ahead of the Ethereum network upgrade.

Food for Thought: Homeless public school students:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications hit a multi-year low last week.

Fed officials want to raise rates in May as financial conditions ease.

The United Kingdom: Surprises in both inflation and wage growth have raised market expectations for the May BoE rate hike to above 25 bps.

Credit: There are a lot of fallen angels this year.

Emerging Markets: Uruguay’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on Wednesday. This was the first rate cut in Latin America since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Energy: Gasoline inventories unexpectedly jumped as demand slows.

Commodities: Platinum has been rallying, with PPLT (physical platinum ETF) hitting resistance.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are primary personal banking institutions:

Edited by William Villacis

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EquitiesGreetings,

The United States: Fewer companies are boosting wages.

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate ticked higher in the three months ending in February.

The Eurozone: Real wage growth has been running below that of the US.

Commodities: Coffee futures are surging.

Equities: Demand for downside protection has been increasing as the market grinds higher.

Food for Thought: Podcast categories with the longest surviving episodes:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index, the first regional factory report of the month, was remarkably strong.

Rents are down on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the COVID shock, according to Redfin.

Equities: During recent recessions, the earnings drawdown of US growth stocks has been less severe than value stocks.

China: China’s Q1 GDP growth was slightly higher than expected, boosted by a surge in consumption.

Asia – Pacific: Investors see a sharp divergence between Asian and global economic growth.

Commodities: CME live cattle futures hit a record high due to a tighter cash market.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is R&D spending by the US vs. China:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the March changes by sector.

The United Kingdom: What percentage of the population lives in poor-quality housing?

The Eurozone: Germany’s wholesale price inflation is crashing.

Equities: Traders jumped into shares of large banks on Friday while dumping regional/small banks.

Commodities: Funds have been boosting their bets against US wheat futures amid ample global supplies.

Rates: Rates market implied vol has closed most of the gap with equities.

Food for Thought: Homeless rates across the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The trade services PPI saw another sharp decline, pointing to weaker profit margins.

Equities: This chart shows corporate guidance announcement trends in select sectors.

Energy: Here is each country’s production relative to quota.

The United Kingdom: The monthly GDP estimate was flat in February (and has been roughly flat for some time).

Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira keeps drifting lower.

Credit: The Fed’s emergency financing for banks declined again in recent days.

Food for Thought: Bank failures in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is the composition of the “supercore” CPI, which is monitored closely by the FOMC.

Equities: The number of stocks that set new highs has declined on each successive rally this year.

Energy: US oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, driven in part by more SPR releases.

Asia – Pacific: Foreigners jumped into Japanese equities in recent days.

Emerging Markets: India’s inflation dipped back inside the RBI’s target range.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto inflows turned net positive for the year, although volumes are still low.

Food for Thought: Here is willingness to trust AI systems by country:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Sales expectations remain depressed.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment indicator improved this month.

Credit: This chart shows retail deposits, by bank.

Energy: Shares of oil & gas services firms have been underperforming.

China: The money supply growth slowed.

Global Developments: This chart shows global equity valuations relative to the historical average and range.

Food for Thought: Central banks’ gold purchases:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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