Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United States: The stock market continues to signal a rebound in US manufacturing activity.

The drop in federal government receipts looks recessionary.

Equities:  According to BofA’s fund manager survey, the disparity in sentiment between institutional and retail investors has reached unprecedented levels.

This chart illustrates this year’s improvement in breadth.

The Eurozone:  The gap between the euro-area and US economic surprises hit extreme levels.

Commodities: US pork belly prices are surging.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is testing support at 30k.

Food for Thought: Here are groups for which prescribed medications were considered too expensive to take:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The US is importing some disinflation from China.

Economic surprises have been positive for hard data, while soft data (surveys) has been lagging.

Equities: Intraday volatility has been moving lower.

The Eurozone: The ECB’s policy transmission has been less effective than in previous cycles as banks keep deposit rates depressed.

Japan: The BoJ’s JGB holdings declined sharply over the past month.

Commodities: Industrial commodities got a boost from the US dollar weakness last week.

Food for Thought: The luxury watch market (a classic bubble):

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The PPI report provided further evidence of easing inflationary pressures, with the June headline and core figures coming in below forecasts.

The United Kingdom: UK investment and savings have lagged other advanced economies.

Cryptocurrency: On Thursday, the SEC charged Celsius and its founder/former CEO with violating securities laws.

Energy: Crude oil prices continue to surge.

Equities: This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Top 25 global banks by market cap:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The supercore CPI (services less housing) was flat on the month, a welcome development for the Fed.

Despite the positive inflation news, the market still expects the Fed to raise rates this month. But the July hike could mark the end of the hiking cycle.

China: Exports were lower than expected last month (well below 2022 levels).

Emerging Markets: EM’s growth/value ratio has significantly underperformed DM’s this year.

Equities: Analysts expect earnings growth to reaccelerate.

Rates: Real rate increases have outpaced nominal rates, lowering inflation expectations.

Food for Thought: Here are views on the impact of K-12  schools on the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Even as businesses continue to report a downward trend in sales, their sales projections were slightly less gloomy last month.

The United Kingdom: Permanent placements have been slowing.

Japan: The PPI is slowing rapidly.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw three straight weeks of inflows, fully correcting the prior nine weeks of outflows.

Commodities: Cocoa supplies are running low.

Equities: Global investors are very bearish on US stocks.

Food for Thought: The Index of Economic Freedom:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Consumer credit growth slowed sharply in May.

Non-revolving consumer credit (mostly auto loans and student debt) declined for the first time since the pandemic shock.

The Eurozone: The Treasury-Bund spread has diverged from the US-Eurozone economic surprise differential.

China: Beijing appears to have stabilized the renminbi.

Equities: Hawkish signals from the Fed and robust US employment data sent the stock-bond correlation back into positive territory.

Alternatives: Global private equity activity has been running well below 2022 levels.

Cryptocurrency: The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s discount has narrowed significantly on hopes for a spot-bitcoin ETF conversion.

Food for Thought: Here is Threads’ user count:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The June payrolls figures came in below expectations …

… for the first time in over a year. Nonetheless, the report was sufficiently robust to ensure a Fed rate hike this month.

The Eurozone: EUR/USD has been resilient despite weaker economic data versus the US

Emerging Markets: Russia’s automobile sales jumped in June.

Commodities: Solar capacity growth is expected to drive demand for silver (according to ANZ).

Equities: Compared to Treasuries and corporate bonds, stocks appear progressively less appealing.

Credit: Here is last week’s performance by asset class.

Food for Thought: The hottest June on record:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: While the ADP index is not well correlated to the official nonfarm payrolls (Establishment Survey) on a monthly basis, the trends tend to converge over time.

Canada: The trade balance unexpectedly swung into deficit amid lower commodity prices.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s goods trade balance is back in surplus.

Emerging Markets: EM equities typically outperform after US recessions.

Energy: Shares of uranium producers are under pressure.

Equities: International shares continue to underperform the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: US college enrollment rates:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Based on market pricing, the monetary policy is already fairly restrictive.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PPI is in negative territory on a year-over-year basis.

China: China’s stocks have underperformed global peers. Here are tech stocks:

Emerging Markets: India’s services growth remains robust.

Equities: The S&P 500 traded around the low end of its average pre-recession range. Performance typically flattens 6-12 months before a recession begins.

Global Developments: The surge in trade as a share of global GDP has plateaued since the financial crisis.

Food for Thought: Here is the number of transistors per microprocessor:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Construction spending jumped in May, …

… boosted by a sharp increase in residential investment.

The United Kingdom: Here is the rate swap curve.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s electronics sector remains in contraction territory.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw a second week of inflows led by long-bitcoin products. Short-bitcoin funds continued to see outflows last week. (2 charts)

Equities: On an equal-weight basis, the S&P 500 industrial sector reached an all-time high, outpacing the S&P 500’s drawdown recovery.

Food for Thought: Losing money in Vegas:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief