Greetings, The United States: Business investment is expected to cool. China: China’s money supply expansion has been lagging loan growth (liquidity is not making its way into the broader economy). This scatterplot shows corporate profitability vs. the velocity of money. The Eurozone: According to Goldman Sachs, government debt spreads will widen in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Today’s retail sales data for December will not be available because of the government shutdown, but based on the Redbook same-store index, holiday sales were relatively healthy. China: As domestic demand for gasoline slows, China will export more of it. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the Eurozone’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 16th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Housing investment forecast from Oxford Economics: China: Tightening liquidity (the M1 money supply) suggests that imports could slow further. The Eurozone: Here are the Eurozone’s debt dynamics since 2000. Equities: The slowdown in earnings growth doesn’t look as sharp when the impact of tax cuts is stripped …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 15th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business activity indices have moderated recently. China: China’s portfolio flows are back in positive territory. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s actual and potential GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded over the years. Equities: Equity long/short hedge funds started the year on a positive note. Emerging Markets: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 14th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Here is Nomura’s forecast for the December CPI report (month-over-month). China: Is China facing deflationary risks as demand slows? The Eurozone: Household savings rate: Credit: Here is the 2018 US corporate debt performance chart. Emerging Markets: Non-residents’ share of local EM government debt has been drifting lower since …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The current economic expansion is on track to become the longest on record. China: Residential building activity should remain robust amid lower inventories. The Eurozone: Will we see a sharp decline in French industrial production as well? Credit: Investment-grade debt continues to underperform high-yield. The chart below compares spread …
Greetings, The United States: Economists and the market expect a slowdown in inflation after last year’s decline in crude oil. However, core inflation should remain around the Fed’s target of 2% as wage growth picks up. China: While the nation’s shadow finance activity continues to shrink, China’s monetary easing should support yuan-denominated lending. …
Greetings, The United States: We have some updates on the housing market. • Despite a slowdown in residential construction, labor shortages persist. China: Does the slowdown in Taiwan’s factory activity point to further weakness in China’s manufacturing? The Eurozone: The number of unemployed Germans hit another multi-year low. Credit: Growth in BBB bonds has …
Greetings, The United States: Surveys continue to suggest that US small businesses remain upbeat. Here is an example. China: This chart shows Chinese imports by origin. The Eurozone: Given the sharp slowdown in the Eurozone’s economic activity measures, the ECB’s timing to end its quantitative easing program was less than ideal. Credit: It’s …
Greetings, The United States: Here is Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator for the US. China: Corporate revenues and margins worsened in the fourth quarter of 2018. CapEx slowed. The Eurozone: Italy’s manufacturing orders have declined for five months in a row, keeping factory output in contraction territory. Credit: 2018 set a record for syndicated …
