Greetings, The United States: How will the latest tariff increases impact consumer inflation? China: The latest increase in China’s exports was driven by US firms “frontloading” orders ahead of tariffs. The Eurozone: Italy benefitted tremendously from the ECB’s TLTRO program (chart below) as lending rates contracted (second chart below). Equities: Market timers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will improved pricing power in the corporate sector result in an upside inflation surprise? China: The percentage of Chinese bonds held by foreigners keeps climbing. Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q4 GDP tracker for the Eurozone. Equities: Valuations remain reasonable since the October selloff. However, analysts are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US multinationals have been repatriating cash from Ireland. Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s bond yields are still climbing. Eurozone: Real rate differentials between the Eurozone and the US have been a drag on the euro. Equities: Bank shares were also lagging amid concerns that Democrats will increase scrutiny on the sector. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The US agricultural sentiment index (Ag Economy Barometer) improved in October on hopes that the NAFTA 2.0 deal will ease trade tensions. China:Goldman’s money-supply indicator for China has diverged from the nation’s credit growth. Eurozone: Economists expect rising wages to nudge the Eurozone’s inflation rate higher. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer. China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling). Europe: Finally, this chart shows government debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US household formation over time (renters vs. homeowners). China: This chart shows the RMB (yuan) usage in foreign payments. The Eurozone: Switzerland’s PMI is declining quickly (yesterday we saw sagging economic confidence – see chart). Equities: Small banks have boosted their borrowing in recent months …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Americans should expect a bump in tax refunds next year (see Morgan Stanley’s comments below). China: This chart shows how Beijing has been “guiding” the housing market. Do the current levels suggest that housing policy tightening is coming? The Eurozone: Is business investment about to slow? Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Finally, the chart below shows how different the run-up in federal debt was in the 1980s vs. over the past decade. China: Will stronger fixed asset investment offset some of the weakness in manufacturing exports? The Eurozone: Here are the updated German political poll results. Equities: Growth …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the government’s contribution to the GDP growth (federal, state and local). Global Developments: Here is TD’s global macro risks index. China: The Q4 GDP growth is shaping up to be disappointing (as tariffs hit). The Eurozone: Here are the components of the French Q3 GDP …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The recent tightening in financial conditions has been unusually sharp. Global Developments: Tighter financial conditions should further slow growth in advanced economies. China: Domestic private firms increasingly dominate China’s exports. The Eurozone: Nonperforming loan percentages have declined across the board. But is it over for this downward trend? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2018”
