The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Financial conditions have eased sharply in recent days.

Europe: European momentum factor outperformance stands out compared to other major equity markets.

China: Economic policy uncertainty has risen sharply.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the largest weekly inflow since mid-December 2024, the third-largest inflow on record.

Commodities: Gold appears overbought.

Equities: It’s been a few months since we saw five consecutive daily gains in the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1980:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Economists have been actively revising down their projections for US economic growth this year.

The United Kingdom: This chart shows the net migration of high-net-worth individuals in the UK.

Japan: Department store sales eased in March.

Commodities: Gold’s correlation with stocks is declining as market volatility subsides.

Equities: The market responded positively to Alphabet’s earnings report, with shares jumping after the close.

Food for Thought: Cities with the highest consumer spending:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Real capital goods orders (blue line) declined.

The United Kingdom: UK consumer confidence is rolling over.

Japan: Short-term JGB yields jumped.

Commodities: Despite persistent outflows from ETFs and futures in 2022 and 2023, robust central bank gold purchases—alongside steady retail demand—have kept overall gold buying resilient.

Energy: US natural gas in storage has returned to its average level.

Equities: The market responded positively to Alphabet’s earnings report, with shares jumping after the close.

Food for Thought: Share of adults regularly consuming sweets and chocolate by country:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is the overall Beige Book sentiment index.

The Eurozone: Greece, Cyprus, and Portugal are undergoing some of the steepest public debt reductions in modern European history, outpacing even Ireland’s notable post-crisis deleveraging. With inflation relatively modest, the scale and speed of these adjustments reflect genuine fiscal consolidation rather than nominal growth effects.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s GDP unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, dragged lower by weak construction spending.

Commodities: Silver maintained its long-term breakout.

Energy: NYMEX crude held resistance at $65/bbl.

Equities: Fund inflows have been robust year-to-date.

Food for Thought: The most popular AI tools by monthly site visits:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The Kalshi betting market recession probability dipped to 54%.

The United Kingdom: Government borrowing exceeded forecasts.

China: Stocks are firmer in Hong Kong.

India: Stocks have been rebounding.

Energy: Crude oil is climbing as the Trump put takes effect.

Equities: Retail investors have accelerated their purchases of S&P 500 single stocks.

Food for Thought: Share of employees working 50 or more miles from their employer by hire date:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The 30-year Treasury yield continues to rise, …

… further steepening the curve.

Canada: The S&P/TSX Composite hit resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s trade surplus reached a multi-year high for this time of year, driven by record-high exports.

India: The key industries’ output growth has remained robust.

Cryptocurrency: BTC/USD is testing initial resistance at its 200-day moving average. Momentum signals improved over the past two weeks.

Equities: Stock futures are higher this morning amid optimism over potential progress in trade talks with India.

Food for Thought: Change in European traveler arrivals to the US between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: US CEO sentiment has deteriorated sharply since January, with April showing the lowest expectations for profit, CapEx, and hiring over the next 12 months. The share of firms anticipating declines now outpaces those expecting gains across all three categories, signaling rising caution amid growing economic uncertainty.

Canada: Foreign investors dumped Canadian shares in February.

Japan: Headline CPI eased in March, but core inflation measures accelerated.

Commodities:  The gold rally accelerated this morning as the US dollar sinks.

Equities:  Stock futures are heavy this morning.

Credit: Foreigners have been selling US corporate bonds

Food for Thought: Task duration AIs can complete by the model release date:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields have declined in recent days, particularly in the “belly” of the curve.

Japan: Export growth was disappointing last month.

China: China’s labour-intensive manufacturing sectors have seen broad-based declines in employment since around 2015, with textiles, clothing, and fur products experiencing the steepest drops.

Cryptocurrency: So far, it has been a mixed week for cryptos, with Solana (SOL) outperforming and Ether (ETH) underperforming top peers.

Equities: The stock market continues to price in stagflationary risks.

Rates: Investors flocked to T-bills and intermediate-term Treasuries during the recent risk-off period.

Food for Thought: Leisure reading frequency among US teenagers since 1984:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index, the first such report of the month, showed a smaller-than-expected contraction.

China: Investors see Beijing’s stimulus boosting growth in the second half.

Canada: The March inflation report came in below expectations.

Equities: A warning from Nvidia sent its stock price tumbling in after-hours trading.

Commodities: ETFs’ gold purchases have accelerated.

Rates: BofA’s private clients continue to rotate out of Treasury bills into notes.

Food for Thought: US estimated undocumented employment by sector as a share of total sector employment:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The March NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a sharp rise in the percentage of Americans anticipating higher unemployment, aligning with findings from the April University of Michigan consumer survey.

The United Kingdom: Economists once again downgraded UK GDP growth projections this month

China: This chart shows the progression of US tariffs on China in recent years.

Equities: A record number of institutional investors plan to reduce their exposure to US equities.

Global Developments: Here is a look at post-“Liberation Day” performance across key assets. Energy, copper, and equities fell the most, while European sovereign bonds and gold held up.

Rates: The US Treasury term premium has reached its highest level in a decade.

Food for Thought: GameStop is on the verge of selling more collectibles than video games.

Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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