The Daily Shot Brief – May 13th, 2021

Greetings,   United States: The CPI report massively overshot market expectations. While these price gains are substantial, they are not that unusual from a historical perspective. We just haven’t seen such increases in recent years, especially in the core CPI. The probability of a rate hike next year rebounded, essentially offsetting last week’s lousy employment …

The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2021

Greetings,   United States: The job openings report provided further confirmation of the tightening labor market. Vacancies blew past market expectations.   The Beveridge curve has turned up, suggesting that many unemployed workers are not ready to return.   United Kingdom: GBP/USD has been sensitive to yield moves.   Asia-Pacific: Will Australia lose its AAA rating …

The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2021

Greetings,   United States: Let’s begin with the labor market. Initial jobless claims remain on a downward path. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits is also declining.   United Kingdom: The updated April Markit Services PMI figure was even stronger than the earlier report, as Britain reopens.   Emerging Markets: India’s COVID cases …

The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2021

Greetings,   United States: The April ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly pulled back from the highs. While factory activity remains exceptionally strong, there are signs that supply-chain bottlenecks are becoming a drag on production and employment.   Europe: Just like in the US, European supply chains are strained (2 charts).   Emerging Markets: Colombia’s finance minister …

The Daily Shot Brief – May 3rd, 2021

Greetings,   United States:  The updated April U. Michigan consumer sentiment index was even stronger than the prior report.   Emerging Markets: India’s COVID cases exceeded 400,000 per day.   Cryptocurrency: Ethereum broke above $3k. Here is the Etherium/Bitcoin ratio.   Equities: How frequently did 95% of S&P 500 stocks close above their 200-day moving …