Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications to purchase a home continue to rebound. The market has been remarkably resilient as buyers take advantage of low mortgage rates. Will mortgage rates move even lower? China: Foreign direct investment in the US tumbled from the 2016 peak. Cross-border VC transactions slowed as well. Energy: Liquid fuel …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 13th, 2020
Greetings, Europe: The spike in credit flows was driven by companies tapping their credit lines. China: Investors are concerned about the deluge of off-balance-sheet bonds from local governments (2 charts). And corporate bond issuance spiked as well. Energy: The Saudis are cutting oil output again and “encouraging” other producers to do …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Americans have been delaying bill payments. And mortgage forbearance rates keep rising, albeit at a slower pace. Europe: Below this year’s UK household spending vs. 2019. China: Credit expansion is running well ahead of historical trends. Also, here is the broad money supply (M2). Energy: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the April payrolls report. Job losses have been unprecedented in recent history. The job market carnage was even worse than the headline figures indicate. The data on labor flows show a record number of Americans leaving the labor force. These workers are not reported as unemployed. Adjusting for …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 8th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index continues to worsen (contradicting some other measures which show stabilization). The buying climate deterioration has been more severe than personal finances, as consumers retreat and the savings rate climbs. United Kingdom: The Bank of England is forecasting the worst yearly decline in the GDP in centuries. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2020
Greetings, United States: According to the ADP private payrolls report, nearly a decade worth of job gains have been wiped out in a month. Here is the distribution by sector. Eurozone: Here are some GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021: Equities: Based on corporate earnings calls, financing concerns in April were worse …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The share of mortgages in forbearance keeps climbing. Will it peak this month? Managing the economy with counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy has helped reduce the GDP volatility, according to BCA Research. Energy: Traders have been rolling out of the June NYMEX crude contract into July much earlier than …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2020
Greetings, Emerging Markets: Mexican remittances unexpectedly spiked in March, hitting a record high. Workers from Mexico living in the US tapped their dollar savings to take advantage of the weak peso during the crisis. China: Corporate earnings have deteriorated sharply in the first quarter. Japan: The Bank of Japan is lagging …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2020
Greetings, United States: US factory activity all but ground to a halt in April. While the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI remained above the 2008 lows, the detail of the report showed utter devastation. The ISM production index showed that manufacturing output in its worst shape in the post-WW-II era. Here is the orders-to-inventories ratio. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 1st, 2020
Greetings, United States: Credit card spending is now down 25% from the same time last year. The US savings rate increased by the highest percentage in 39 years (see story) China: China’s restaurant recovery has lost momentum. Also, Macau gaming revenues are down 97% on a year-over-year basis. Equities: Companies …
