Greetings, The United States: According to Moody’s, the new tax law “significantly reduces tax incentives of homeownership.” What will be the impact on the housing market? Equity Markets: There are not many asset classes that could protect against market volatility. Even the traditional safe-haven assets such as the yen or gold are …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The inflation indicator based on US news flow hit the highest level since 2006. The prices charged by small businesses, as reported by the NFIB survey, point to higher inflation ahead. Equity Markets: How do different market strategies (factors) perform in different GDP growth environments? Emerging Markets: Here …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US consumer and business confidence continues to climb. This chart combines multiple sentiment indicators. Equity Markets: The chart below shows the longer-term implied volatility curve steepening, making it increasingly expensive to maintain long-vol positions. Cryptocurrency: Large crypto exchanges are doing well. The Eurozone: Below is the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How much will a broad tariff on Chinese imports impact prices of domestically produced consumer products? Here is the breakdown by sector. Equity Markets: Company insiders are very bullish. China:The PBoC is increasingly reliant on open-market operations to set monetary policy (as opposed to the overnight rate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How tight is the labor market? Small businesses are hiring fewer workers than they have been planning. Will US labor force participation improve further as wages rise? Equity Markets: US equity mutual funds have experienced redemptions each month over the past year. China: China has accelerated its spending …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Credit Suisse sees the core PCE inflation (the Fed’s primary benchmark) approaching 2% this year but not quite getting there. Equity Markets: US stock funds (combined mutual funds and ETFs) continue to see persistent outflows. February was a rough month, with both passive and active products losing capital. Here …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US exports should be on the rise as the weak dollar helps American firms compete internationally. A trade war, however, could quickly reverse these gains. Equity Markets: February saw significant fund outflows from US domestic equities. International funds, however, continue attracting capital. China: The nation’s households are …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US commercial construction firms are a bit more cautious on new business in the near-term. These companies continue to struggle with the quality of skilled labor (something we also hear from US small businesses). Equity Markets: Merrill Lynch still sees US investos as being too bullish. However, the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Recently, we’ve seen softer consumer spending in the US (see #3 here). And a great deal of recent spending has been food and energy. Equity Markets: This table shows the overlap in top stock holdings by hedge funds and mutual funds. Credit: Large banks are growing deposits …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: How much of the recent corporate tax reductions will go to the American worker? Estimates vary dramatically. Here is how Morgan Stanley sees the allocation of gains from the tax cuts. Wall Steet is enormously grateful to Uncle Sam this year. Equity Markets: The S&P 500 implied volatility …
