Greetings, The United States: US retail sales beat consensus, but the latest monthly increase was driven by the hurricanes (damaged/flooded car replacements and higher spending on gasoline). On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth remains stable (shown here ex. gasoline spending). Credit: US banks continue to report a rise in consumer loan delinquncies. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 16th, 2017”
Greetings, Global developments: Global earnings growth has been relatively synchronized. The United States: The hurricanes’ impact on the US initial unemployment claims has not been as bad as some had feared. Europe: The Eurozone industrial production continues to improve, exceeding economists’ forecasts. China: The 10yr government bond yield is hovering just below …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 13th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: Puerto Rico’s general obligation debt took another leg down. Here are the updated Moody’s ratings for each state’s general obligation debt. Europe: The Catalonia jitters had generated record levels of trading in Spanish government bonds. But the concerns appear to be easing now as the bond curve flattens (investors roll into longer …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: Here is the covenant-light share of the US leveraged loan market. Japan: The Nikkei continues to climb. The Eurozone: Investors have taken quite a bit of money out of the largest Spanish equity ETF. The United States: Nomura sees the GOP succeeding in its efforts to cut US personal taxes by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: This chart shows thirty years of securitized products outstanding (excluding agency MBS). Japan: Polls show that there are still quite a few undecided voters, as the snap election approaches. The Eurozone: Here is the Greek debt maturity wall. 2019 will be an interesting year. The United States: Hurricanes tend to have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 10th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: The “quality” of the HY corporate debt market (based on the ratings composition) has improved since the financial crisis. Investment-grade debt quality, however, has deteriorated. Japan: Analysts say that Japanese shares look attractive. But some investors a nervous, given the BoJ’s deep involvement in the market. Alternatives: Private equity investors …
Greetings, Credit: Here is the total US corporate debt as a percentage of the GDP. Rates: Treasury yields keep climbing on tax reform hopes and stronger US data. Alternatives: Under pressure to boost returns, US public pensions continue to allocate to hedge funds. The United States: US initial jobless claims were …
Greetings, The United States: The dollar and President Trump’s approval ratings have been correlated. Both indicate the level of confidence in the “reflation trade.” Credit: Corporate investment-grade fund inflows continue (the first chart below is ETPs, the second is mutual funds). Europe: Elsewhere in Europe, the UK has a massive age gap in …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the number of states with increasing economic activity. Credit: There is very little sub-debt in this LBO cycle but a much greater second-lien debt (SLD) tranche. The United Kingdom: The UK’s construction activity is contracting again. Emerging Markets: EM hard currency bond issuance hit a …
Greetings, The United States: Houston home sales seem to have recovered much quicker than those in New Orleans after Katrina. Credit: Here is a summary of the September performance for major asset classes. The spread compression really stands out (“LOAS” = option-adjusted spread to LIBOR). The United Kingdom: Theresa May wants to “have …
